ACE Report: Jobs drop in September, but outlook is optimistic

For the second straight month, Northeast Ohio registered a decline in the size of its payrolls, as calculated in the Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report.

In September, seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 1,657 jobs, to 1,172,402 last month from 1,174,059 in August, according to the ACE Report data. That followed a decrease of more than 3,600 jobs from July to August.

Both goods-producing and service-producing companies in Northeast Ohio shed jobs in September, the ACE Report found. Payrolls related to goods production fell by 1,539, and service-related regional payrolls fell 118.

September’s payroll number of 1,172,402 was below the region’s three-month (1,174,728) and six-month (1,174,286) averages, according to the ACE Report data.

However, Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model, noted that employment in Northeast Ohio “continues to remain in positive territory for the year, as there were 6,012 more jobs in the seven-county Cleveland/Akron region than the (like) month a year ago.”

Kleinhenz said in an analysis of the most recent data that there are “a lot of moving parts impacting Northeast Ohio economic activity, including seasonal forces in August and September, thus making it difficult to infer that slower growth is ahead.”

He noted that while employment measures “are important, they leave out other key information (that is) included in other economic series.”

For instance, Kleinhenz said he keeps a close eye on a “coincident economic index” produced for each state by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The index includes four factors: employment; average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers; the unemployment rate; and wage and salaries incorporating employment.

In August, he said, the coincident index for Ohio increased 0.3%, and it has risen by 3.4% over the past 12 months. These “are favorable figures when compared to the nation’s 0.24% and 3%, respectively,” Kleinhenz said.

He also found reason for optimism in the results of the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index. That index “rebounded strongly in September to 57.1 from 51.4 in August, well above market expectations and its highest reading since October 2015,” Kleinhenz said.

Meanwhile, he said, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.5 from 49.4, which “suggests a modest pickup in business activity in September.”

Kleinhenz concluded, “The improvement as measured by these indexes, though a bit uneven, holds out hope that a pickup in economic activity is underway for the remainder of 2017 and should provide the basis for future payroll gains for the Northeast Ohio region.”

Custom-Chart-1

Seaonally adjusted data

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Mar-16(actual) 1,175,919   478,541   697,378 215,829 960,090
April (est) 1,171,228   476,564   694,664 215,938 955,290
May (est) 1,175,950   478,462   697,489 217,154 958,796
Jun (est) 1,174,351   477,788   696,562 217,180 957,170
Jul (est) 1,177,724   479,087   698,637 218,863 958,861
Aug (est) 1,174,059   477,748   696,311 216,000 958,059
Sept (est) 1,172,402   477,160   695,242 214,460 957,941

Recent Month’s Estimated Change

Date Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Aug ’16 to Sept ’16 (1,657)   (588)   (1,069) (1,539) (118)
Diff from Sept 2015 6,012   2,592   3,420 (980) 6,992

Trend

Date Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
3-month 1,174,728   477,998   696,730 216,441 958,287
6-month 1,174,286   477,802   696,484 216,599 957,686

ACE Report: Region’s jobs drop in August, but increase year-over-year

The monthly tally of Northeast Ohio private payrolls in August continued on its roller coaster of up one month and down the next, with the Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report showing a decrease of 3,626 jobs from July, a 0.31% decline.

Longer term, though, employment in the seven-county Akron-Cleveland metro area was 8,340 jobs higher in August than a year ago, a 0.71% increase.

“The economy is in its eighth year of economic recovery and still remains in its expansion phase of a payroll cycle,” reported Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model. “It has been on a slow path of economic growth, but the labor market continues to maintain momentum.”

Statewide, nonagricultural wage and salary employment grew by 77,000 jobs year-over-year, a 1.35% increase, based on a survey by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released last Tuesday, Sept. 20 by the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services.

Employment in all 88 Ohio counties decreased by 2,000 positions, from 5,505,400 in July to 5,503,400 in August.

Analyzing the state data, the nonprofit Policy Matters Ohio think tank, which is supported by foundations, community organizations and unions, reported that Ohio’s 12-month job growth rate of 1.35% continues to trail the national average of 1.7%, but it represents an improvement over the pace of job creation since the official start of the last national recession in 2007.

“Ohio needs many more months of five-figure employment growth to close the job gap, so (August’s) losses are disappointing,” said researcher Hannah Halbert in a press release. “However, the August loss is slight, and didn’t come close to wiping out recent gains. That’s an improvement from the earlier trend.”

Although Northeast Ohio and the state posted job losses, Kleinhenz noted that the country posted a less-than-expected gain of 151,000 jobs. CNBC reported that Wall Street economists were expecting the nonfarm payrolls report to show a gain of 180,000 in August.

“This figure still remains above the required gain to keep the unemployment rate moving down on a slow, yet steady, pace,” Kleinhenz said. “It is important to note that as the economy gets closer to its full employment — and we are getting close — finding workers increases in difficulty.”

Kleinhenz cited Bureau of Labor Statistics data that show job openings “rose sharply in July, and the rate of openings was a record high. Meanwhile, the increase in hiring was not as great. Openings have grown faster than hires for nearly every month over the last year and a half.”

Hirings differ from job gains since job gains are net of hirings, firings and employment lost from deaths.

“All in all the data suggest that firms are having a challenging time filling positions but also indicating that workers are moving to jobs that better suit them and their efficiencies,” Kleinhenz reported.

Seaonally adjusted

Ace-Report-Aug
Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Mar-16 1,175,919   478,541   697,378  215,829 960,090
Apr (est) 1,171,007   476,478   694,529  215,846 955,161
May (est) 1,176,132   478,537   697,595  217,167 958,965
Jun (est) 1,174,496   477,833   696,663  217,419 957,077
Jul (est) 1,178,355   479,348   699,007  218,912 959,442
Aug (est) 1,174,729   478,016   696,713  216,188 958,541
Recent Month’s Estimated Change Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
July ’16 to Aug ’16 (3,626)  (1,331.90)  (2,294) (2,724) (902)
Diff from Aug 2015 8,340  3,484  4,856 244 8,096
Trend Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
3-month 1,175,860 478,399 697,461  217,507  958,353
6-month 1,175,106 478,125 696,981  216,894  958,213

September 23, 2016

Photo by COLE GOLDBERG

ACE Report: July jobs growth continues region’s slow, steady path

That 1.03% jump is the fifth increase in the last six months. Since January, the number of people employed in the private sector in the seven counties of the Cleveland metropolitan area has grown by 12,014, to 1,178,449. The only decline was in June, when employment dropped by 1,138 to 1,174,474 jobs.

Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model, noted that U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports also indicated that, in July, there are more people joining the workforce and that average hourly earnings and average weekly hours increased as well.

“Consequently, there are more people employed, working longer hours and earning larger pay,” Kleinhenz said.

Kleinhenz said that second-quarter U.S. economic growth was well below expectations, rising at an annualized rate of 1.2%, nearly half the gain anticipated by consensus forecasts. He said growth slowed primarily because of an ongoing slump in business investment and slowdowns globally, especially in the energy sector.

Separately, in a report on the economy of the Cleveland metropolitan area released last Thursday, Aug. 25, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland said employment in the metropolitan area grew by 0.5% for the year ending September 2015, lower than employment growth in the state (1.2%) or the country (2.0%).

The report, by economist Joel Elvery, noted that in the 12 months ended September 2015, three sectors added more than 2,000 jobs: education and health services (2,531 jobs); trade, transportation and utilities (2,446); and hospitality (2,364). Two sectors had significant job losses over that 12-month period: professional and business services (2,265) and manufacturing (600).

Elvery attributed the weak employment growth in the Cleveland region relative to the state and country to “sustained population loss. However, population loss slowed greatly in 2013 and 2014. Hopefully, this headwind will fade.”

Looking ahead, another Cleveland Fed economist, senior vice president Mark Schweitzer, said the regional economic outlook is for steady, if modest, growth.

“We’ve had three quarters of relatively weak growth” in the Cleveland Fed’s district, Schweitzer said at a regional economic outlook session on Aug. 18 at the Cleveland Fed. “We’re still expecting things to be better in the coming quarter.”

The Cleveland Fed’s district includes all of Ohio, eastern Kentucky and parts of western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

Seaonally adjusted

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec 1,169,198   475,677   693,522 216,446 952,753
Jan (est.) 1,166,435   474,565   691,870 215,754 950,681
Feb (est.) 1,168,282   475,385   692,897 215,118 953,164
Mar (est.) 1,168,421   475,440   692,981 215,157 953,264
Apr (est.) 1,170,593   476,314   694,278 215,700 954,893
May (est.) 1,175,612   478,324   697,288 217,094 958,518
June (est.) 1,174,474   477,808   696,666 217,637 956,838
July (est.) 1,178,449   479,380   699,069 219,023 959,426

August 26, 2016

ACE Report: Despite job losses, other signs suggest economic growth

A projected decline of 2,343 jobs in June ended a five-month string of Northeast Ohio job gains, though the loss may only reflect a summertime blip since other indicators suggest job and economic growth, according to data in the latest Ahola Crain’sEmployment (ACE) Report.

Also, the month-to-month, 0.02%, drop in seasonally adjusted employment for the seven-county Akron-Cleveland region, is balanced against a year-over-year gain of 6,249 jobs, a 0.54% increase from June 2015 to June 2016.

“It’s hard to gauge whether or not the expected pullback in payrolls point to a sea change in regional economic activity,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model. “Payroll growth has been choppy.  A similar pattern was evident in 2015 as payrolls fell off in the summer but then rebounded in the fall.”

Private-sector employment in the metro area dropped 0.22%, or 2,589 jobs, between June 2015 and July 2015, according to the ACE model, before recovering.

The report projects that service producing firms account for about 2,279 lost jobs, while the goods producing sector shows only a loss of about 64 jobs.

Kleinhenz noted that the stronger dollar “has shown to be a significant speed bump for regional, state and U.S. manufacturing exporters and has created a drag on domestic employment, income and spending.”

He said the research office of the Ohio Development Services Agency estimates that Ohio merchandise exports declined 3%, or $50.7 billion, between 2014 and 2015. But, Kleinhenz reported, other indicators of the economy do point in a positive direction.

“Both the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes showed a pickup in the pace of growth in June and registered expansionary readings for survey’s employment component,” he said. “This bodes well for area income and spending.”

The U.S. manufacturing sector showed strong growth in June according to the latest monthly survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing supply executives indicated a Purchasing Managers’ Index increase of 1.9%

Of the 18 manufacturing sectors tracked by ISM, 13 reported growth in June led by printing, textiles, petroleum and coal products and food, beverage and tobacco products. The three industries reporting contractions are electrical equipment, appliances and components; transportation equipment; and rubber and plastic products.

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec (actual) 1,169,198    475,677   693,522 216,446 952,753
Jan (est.) 1,165,378    474,177   691,201 214,962 950,416
Feb (est.) 1,167,066    474,922   692,143 214,430 952,635
Mar (est.) 1,167,163    474,950   692,213 214,622 952,541
Apr (est.) 1,169,020    475,698   693,323 215,075 953,945
May (est.) 1,173,765    477,613   696,152 216,172 957,593
June (est) 1,171,422    476,634   694,788 216,108 955,313

 

By

July 29, 2016

ACE Report: Northeast Ohio job growth paces ahead of state

The increase in the number of people employed in Northeast Ohio between April and May — 4,543 jobs — was greater than the employment growth between April 2015 and April 2016, when the region added 3,780 jobs, as tracked by the Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report.

The accelerating growth in May, an increase of 0.39% in the regional workforce, might not be a one-month blip.

Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model, said that it “portends an acceleration in regional economic activity.”

Kleinhenz’s analysis showed that the employment growth came, in raw numbers, more from the service sector than the manufacturing sector, since 80% of the region’s jobs are classified as service.

But on a percentage basis, more were created in the goods-producing sector. The region added 3,538 service jobs, a 0.37% increase, and 1,006 goods-producing, or manufacturing jobs, a 0.47% increase.

Strong growth in new manufacturing orders and modest gains in production and exports, Kleinhenz said, helped account for the growth in goods-producing jobs.

Employment growth in Northeast Ohio, the seven-county Cleveland-Akron area, outperformed on a percentage basis the growth in employment statewide.

In Ohio, nonagricultural employment increased 9,200 in May over April, from 5,477,600 to 5,486,800, a 0.17% increase, according to the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services, compared with Northeast Ohio’s 0.39% increase.

The growth in jobs and the declining unemployment rate — metro Cleveland’s unemployment rate is down to 4.8%, while Akron’s is 4.7% — hides a concern among economists about the declining participation of so-called prime-age men — males ages 25 to 54 — in the workforce.

A study released earlier in June by the White House Council of Economic Advisors found that only 88% of the men in that key age group are either working or looking for work. That’s down dramatically from a peak of 98% in 1954.

The study concludes, not surprisingly, that the demand for the labor of lower-skilled men is an important factor in the decline and reflects changing technology and automation and the globalization of the U.S. economy.

This decline in the prime-age male labor force participation rate, the study found, is particularly troubling since workers at this age are at their most productive.

“(B)ecause of this, the long-run decline has outsized implications for individual well-being as well as for broader economic growth,” the study found. “A large body of evidence has linked joblessness to worse economic prospects in the future, lower overall well-being and happiness, and higher mortality, as well as negative consequences for families and communities.”

The economic advisers recommend increasing investment in public infrastructure, creating construction jobs, would help boost prime-age male labor force participation. It also suggests reforming community colleges and other job-training systems.

Seaonally adjusted

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec (actual) 1,169,198 475,677   693,522 216,446 952,753
Jan (est.) 1,165,273 474,139   691,134 214,872 950,402
Feb (est.) 1,166,961 474,881   692,080 214,395 952,567
Mar (est.) 1,167,019 474,892   692,127 214,583 952,437
Apr (est.) 1,168,968 475,679   693,289 215,034 953,934
May (est.) 1,173,511 477,516   695,996 216,040 957,471
Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Apr ’16 to May ’16 4,543  1,836.96   2,706 1,006 3,538
Diff from May 2015 5,946  2,617   3,329 (1,736) 7,682
Trend
3-month 1,169,833  476,029   693,804 215,219 954,614
6-month 1,168,489  475,464   693,025 215,228 953,260

By

ACE Report: April job numbers spring forward

Northeast Ohio gained 1,874 private-sector jobs in April, part of an uptick in the regional labor market that has seen employment grow by an estimated 3,431 jobs over the last 12 months, as tracked by the Ahola Crain’s Employment Report.

Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model, said the seasonally adjusted employment numbers suggest some optimism about a rebound in manufacturing employment, which has suffered in recent months.

The 0.12% increase in private-sector employment seen in the ACE analysis is comparable to an increase in the April ADP National Employment Report, which saw a modest increase nationally of 156,000 jobs from March to April. However, manufacturing employment declined nationally, according to the ADP report, while Northeast Ohio manufacturing employment in the seven county Cleveland-Akron area grew by 0.36%.

Longer term, according to the ACE analysis, manufacturing employment gained 1,580 jobs since April 2015, a 0.66% gain. Kleinhenz is optimistic that trend will continue.

“Manufacturing has been in a significant swoon that dates back to late 2014,” he said. “However, based on this month’s estimates, manufacturing employment is headed for at least a temporary improvement in the months ahead.”

Both the ACE and ADP data are derived from payroll data of client companies served, nationally by ADP LLC and regionally by The Ahola Corp., a Brecksville payroll and human services firm.

The economists at PNC Financial Services Group Inc., report in their second-quarter Northeast Ohio Market Outlook that manufacturing employment in its Northeast Ohio service area, which includes the Canton and Youngstown metropolitan areas in addition to Cleveland and Akron, would have been stronger had it not been for layoffs in metals production and the energy industry.

Those layoffs were due to competition from steel imports and the sharp decline in energy prices, which has reduced investment in oil and gas drilling in the region.

Looking back to before the recession, however, is a reminder that the region has shed thousands of jobs.

According to data compiled by the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services, the Cleveland and Akron metros have lost 62,400 jobs since employment peaked in 2006, before the recession.

The state agency’s data shows that regional employment averaged 1,398,600 during 2006 but has dropped, as of April, to 1,336,200.

Broken down, the Cleveland area has lost 47,000 workers since 2006, while Akron has lost 18,400 jobs.

ACE REPORT

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Sept (Actual) 1,164,804    473,914  690,890 215,278 949,526
Oct (est.) 1,164,798    473,762  691,036 217,419 947,379
Nov (est.) 1,161,764    472,667  689,097 214,861 946,903
Dec (est.) 1,164,131    473,645  690,486 215,080 949,051
Jan (est.) 1,163,766    473,498  690,268 214,997 948,769
Feb (est.) 1,165,793    474,378  691,415 214,576 951,217
Mar (est.) 1,165,950    474,430  691,519 214,767 951,183
Apr (est.) 1,167,824    475,197  692,628 215,062 952,762

May 27, 2016

By Jay Miller

ACE Report: Energy slowdown leads to a down March in region

By Jay Miller

Continuing its roller-coaster ride, Northeast Ohio lost 375 jobs in March, according to the latest Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report. The March loss was preceded by a February increase, which was preceded by a January loss and a December increase.

The longer, year-over-year gain, however, is positive, with Northeast Ohio employment up 3,316 jobs, a gain of 0.29%.

“The regional economy is expanding and is in better shape than many expected (given the) uncertainty caused by the volatile financial markets that disrupted economic activity earlier this year,” said economist Jack Kleinhenz, who compiles the ACE data, referring to stock market ups and downs that followed the price of oil.

Employment growth came entirely from the service sector, with employment in that sector growing by 6,397 jobs, a 0.7% increase. That was offset by a loss of 3,081, or 1.5%, in the smaller industrial sector.

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, explained the weakness in industrial sector employment in an April 1 speech to the New York Association for Business Economics after noting that the slowdown in the energy sector was affecting employment in northern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

“Regional firms with international exposure, such as steel producers, also continue to struggle in the wake of dollar appreciation and lower commodity prices that reflect weak global demand,” she said.

“While manufacturers with ties to energy and steel production have faced challenges, the weakness in that segment has been offset by production increases at manufacturers supplying the construction industry and by the auto industry.”

The ACE Report surveys only Cuyahoga County and the six counties that surround it, while the Fed’s Cleveland-based Fourth District comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Michael Teshome, an economist who covers the Midwest for PNC Financial Services Group, agrees with Mester but also sees a future of employment growth in other sectors.

“Layoffs in the steel industry will restrain employment growth in manufacturing,” he wrote. “Health care, finance and professional services will add to the area’s economic growth.”

PNC forecasts employment growth in Northeast Ohio at 1% for 2016 and 1.1% for 2017. Longer term, PNC’s economist sees opportunity for greater growth.

“Though still only in their early development stages, manufacturing hubs for the machinery of new energy technologies and transportation equipment hold great promise for those regions that can attract and cultivate them,” Teshome wrote.

“The (Northeast Ohio) region’s lower costs and availability of underutilized assets will be an important tool in attracting new industries and opportunities into the region in the years ahead.”

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
September (Actual) 1,164,804   473,914    690,890   215,278 949,526
Oct (est.) 1,165,339   473,967    691,371   217,727 947,611
Nov (est.) 1,162,090   472,798    689,292   214,944 947,146
Dec (est.) 1,164,636   473,839    690,797   215,335 949,301
Jan (est.) 1,164,051   473,610    690,441   215,102 948,949
Feb (est.) 1,165,721   474,355    691,366   214,476 951,246
Mar (est.) 1,165,346   474,200    691,147   214,441 950,905
Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Feb ’16 to Mar ’16    (375)   (154.98)    (220)    (34)    (341)
Diff from Mar 2015    3,316   1,607    1,709    (3,082)    6,397
Trend
3-month    1,165,040    474,055    690,985    214,673    950,366
6-month    1,164,531    473,795    690,736    215,338    949,193

ACE Report: Northeast Ohio posts another modest jobs gain

The Northeast Ohio workforce gained 682 paychecks in February. A small number, but in a jobs picture on a roller coaster, any gain is better than the alternative.

The latest Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report projects that private-sector employment in the Cleveland-Akron metropolitan region’s private sector grew to 1,164,001 jobs in February from 1,163,319 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, an increase of 0.06%.

The economy of the seven-county metro area seems to be settling into a new normal of year-to-year slow job growth with month-to-month ups and downs, even when seasonal fluctuations are smoothed out. Over the last 12 months, employment is up 1,433 jobs, a slight 0.12% gain since February 2015, when the region employed 1,162,568 people.

Employment peaked in July at 1,167,490, then slid for four months to 1,161,984 before recovering.

“The estimated job growth indicates a modest pace of business activity,” reports economist Jack Kleinhenz, who devised the ACE model. “The world economies were not well behaved in the early months of 2016, impacting the outlook for the U.S. and probably creating some drag on the regional economy.”

The metro area growth lags slightly the growth in state employment.

According to the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services, employment statewide grew by 53,000 jobs, a 0.98% gain from 5,344,000 in February 2015 to 5,397,000 in February 2016.

Manufacturing has been sluggish, stemming from slower growth overseas and the stronger U.S. dollar, Kleinhenz said, though he believes that gains in consumer spending, income, employment and housing prices will counter the manufacturing slowdown.

“Consumer spending is off on a strong start this year,” said Kleinhenz, who is the chief economist for the National Retail Federation, a major retail trade association. “Housing should get the benefit of a better labor market and growing incomes. The early Easter should also pull spending into the first quarter.”

The Federal Reserve Board’s March Beige Book, the Fed’s eight-times-a-year assessment of economic conditions across the country, concurs with the ACE characterization. It lumps its Cleveland-based Fourth District — which includes Ohio, Western Pennsylvania and Eastern Kentucky — among the majority of the Fed’s 12 districts that are reporting “modest” growth in the labor market.

The Fed noted reports from the Fourth District that low-skilled jobs were becoming increasingly difficult to fill.

The ACE Report is based on payroll data from about 3,000 predominantly small and midsize employers that is gathered by The Ahola Corp., a Brecksville payroll and human capital management firm and on other economic indicators, including construction data and retail sales.

ACE Report February

Month Non-Farm  Small (1-49)   Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
September(Actual) 1,164,804   473,914   690,890 215,278 949,526
Oct(est) 1,163,125   473,123   690,002 216,507 946,618
Nov(est.) 1,161,984   472,760   689,224 214,844 947,140
Dec(est) 1,164,239   473,693   690,546 215,039 949,201
Jan(est) 1,163,319   473,318   690,000 214,876 948,443
Feb(est) 1,164,001   473,686   690,314 213,703 950,298
Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Jan ’16 to Feb ’16 682   367.95   314 (1,172) 1,854
Diff from Feb 2015 1,433   888   544 (4,114) 5,547
Trend
3-month 1,163,853   473,566   690,287 214,539 949,314
6-month 1,163,579   473,416   690,163 215,041 948,538

By

March 25, 2016

ACE Report: Region loses 650 jobs in January, but year-over-year employment is up slightly

Employment in Northeast Ohio took a slight dip in January, with a loss of 650 jobs from December to January. That represents a loss of 0.06% of the region’s jobs, according to the Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report, with the number employed dropping to 1.16 million.

That January number, however, is a gain of 1,244 jobs, or 0.11%, from the number of people employed in the region in January 2015.

There is usually a falloff of employment in the early months of the year, said Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who compiles the ACE data.

Still, Kleinhenz sees regional employment on an upward trajectory.

“The employment data is consistent with an economy that downshifted during the month” of January, he reported. “The rate of improvement in labor market conditions remains erratic for both the nation and the region, but the labor market continues to move in the right direction.”

But where Northeast Ohio saw an actual drop in employment, Ohio and the nation saw only a decline in the pace of job growth. Nationally, the growth in payrolls was 151,000 for the month, according to U.S. Department of Labor estimates. That was below expectations since 262,000 jobs were created in December.

Similarly, job growth in Ohio was off slightly. The state saw growth of 7,888 jobs between November and December, according to data compiled by ADP, a national payroll firm, but only a gain of 6,837 between December and January, an increase of 0.15%.

Longer term, a report released in late January by the Brookings Institution showed that job growth in Northeast Ohio — it divides the region into Akron and Cleveland-Elyria metropolitan areas — has languished for a decade. Brookings is a Washington, D.C., think tank.

The organization publishes a periodic “Metro Monitor” that tracks growth, prosperity and inclusion in the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. The report calls the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession as “slow and uneven,” with growth strongest along the West Coast, the Intermountain West and Texas and weak in the Sun Belt.

“The manufacturing economies of the eastern Great Lakes, like those in Northeast Ohio or Upstate New York, also saw weak recoveries,” the report stated.

Using data from Moody’s Analytics, Brookings puts employment growth in the two Northeast Ohio metros among the lowest third of the 100 metropolitan areas in the country. The report shows that employment in the Akron metro has been flat for the decade ending in 2014.

For the last five years, since the recession, Akron saw employment growth of 3.5%. For the last year, employment grew by and 1.5%, according to Brookings’ analysis.

In the Cleveland-Elyria metro, employment still is below a decade ago, by 3.3%, though it has picked up since the recession, with 3.6% growth for the last five years.

Brookings reports no employment growth in the Cleveland metro for 2014, the last year in the survey.<br

Seasonally Adjusted Data

Month Non-Farm  Small      (1-49)   Mid-Sized (50+)   Goods-producing   Service Producing
June(Actual) 1,163,941   473,458    690,483   216,623  947,318
July(est.) 1,157,861   470,937    686,924   216,173  941,688
Aug(est.) 1,158,709   471,291    687,418   216,196  942,513
Sept(est.) 1,159,375   471,571    687,805   216,203  943,172
Oct(est) 1,162,009   472,658    689,351   216,462  945,547
Nov(est.) 1,161,126   472,402    688,724   214,819  946,307
Dec(est.) 1,163,443   473,357    690,086   215,071  948,372
Jan(est.) 1,162,791   473,090    689,701   214,971  947,820
 

 

Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Dec ’15 to Jan ’16 (652)  (267)  (385)  (99)  (553)
Diff fromJan 2015 1,244  733  512  (3,014)  4,259
 

 

Trend
3-month 1,162,453  472,950  689,504  214,954  947,500
945,622 945,622  945,622  945,622  945,622  945,622

By Jay Miller

February 26, 2016

Recession Not on the Horizon, Economists Agree

“Is the U.S. economy going into a recession?” asked economist Lisa Emsbo-Mattingly, repeating the leadoff question at the first “Crain’s Economic Outlook” event at the InterContinental Hotel in Cleveland on Wednesday, Feb. 2.

“No,” she said. “But the dynamics of the economy are changing.”

As the session progressed, Emsbo-Mattingly, director of research and global asset allocation at Fidelity Investments of Boston, and Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation and principal of Kleinhenz & Associates of Cleveland Heights, elaborated on that theme, telling the audience of 125 economists and business leaders that different industries and different levels of the global economy — international, nationwide and regional — do not move in lockstep and that all of those pieces are continuously moving up and down.

Proving the point, she added that, despite her positive sense of the broad U.S. economy, “Manufacturing essentially is in a recession.”

A frequent, up-close observer of the Chinese economy, Emsbo-Mattingly said what happens there will have an impact throughout the world.

Closer to home, Kleinhenz added that he sees “not stellar growth, but good growth,” for the Northeast Ohio economy in 2016.

And Kleinhenz took a little shine off any rosy outlook by pointing out that the economy is in its seventh year of expansion and, “Most expansions don’t die of old age.”

The discussion turned to the outlook for personal investment and how investors should be allocating their assets for the year ahead.

“That’s a tough question to answer,” said Emsbo-Mattingly, who is currently president of the National Association of Business Economics. “It’s an extremely volatile market. A big factor in that is the slowing growth of the Chinese economy.”

Politics was on the mind of one questioner, who asked about how the results of this year’s presidential election might affect the economy. Both economists agreed that the economy won’t strengthen or weaken based on who wins.

“I don’t think whoever wins will make a difference,” Kleinhenz said.

By