Holiday sales to rise 3.6 percent this winter: NRF

A more confident group of consumers are expected to loosen their purse strings this holiday, and are seen sparking an acceleration in retail sales growth over last year.

The National Retail Federation on Tuesday said it expects retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants to rise 3.6 percent in November and December, to $655.8 billion. That would mark an acceleration over last year’s 3 percent increase, and would easily top the 10-year average of 2.5 percent growth.

The trade organization’s forecast, considered the industry benchmark, is based on an economic model that factors in consumer credit, monthly retail sales and personal income.

NRF anticipates non-store sales, which skew toward digital, will increase between 7 percent and 10 percent, to as much as $117 billion.

“We have a lot more people working this year,” Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist, told reporters.

When factoring in other indicators like wage growth and higher home prices, “our general sense of the economy is that we’re in better shape than we were last year,” Kleinhenz said.

Source: NRF

Retailers got off to a rocky start in 2016, as last winter’s unseasonably warm temperatures left their shelves stocked with coats and scarves. Stores were forced to aggressively discount these items to make way for spring goods, cutting into their margins. Retailers have finally gotten their inventory levels in check, boding well for their profitability this season.

Yet even as more Americans are working and receiving slightly higher paychecks, they’ve been reluctant to spend on traditional retail goods — namely apparel. Broad-based discounting has also cut into retailers’ top lines, requiring them to sell more items to record a gain.

And weather once again took a toll on sales in August and September, thanks to a warm back-to-school and early fall selling season. High temperatures dented apparel specialty stores’ revenue by $393 million during those two months as compared with the prior year, according to new research by Planalytics.

More broadly speaking, data from the Commerce Department shows that retail sales in August slipped on a monthly basis for the first time since March.

Despite the slowdown, Planalytics predicts temperatures on the densely populated East Coast will be more in line with typical years this holiday, which should help spur demand for cold-weather categories. And while some holiday purchases may be pushed back because of the election, the trade organization said it does not anticipate political uncertainty to dent sales.

“This year has not been perfect,” NRF President Matthew Shay conceded. “Overall we think this is a realistic number and very reflective of the current environment.”

Like NRF, separate forecasts from Deloitte, AlixPartners, the International Council of Shopping Centers and RetailNext are all calling for growth between 3.2 percent and 4 percent. PwC expects a more robust 10 percent lift in spending; unlike the other predictions, its forecast includes spending on restaurants and travel.

Retail sales excluding automobiles and parts rose 2.8 percent through August, according to the Commerce Department.

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CNBC

Forecast: Holiday Sales to Increase 3.6 Percent

The first forecasts for the upcoming 2016 holiday season have been released, and they predict that retailers will enjoy solid sales during the crucial season which can comprise more than 20 percent of a retailer’s annual business, according to the National Retail Federation, the Washington D.C. retail trade organization.

Retail sales during November and December, excluding auto, gas and restaurant sales, will increase 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion, according to the NRF, which released its forecast on Oct. 4. Deloitte, the auditing, consulting and risk management company, forecast that holiday retail sales will increase 3.6 percent to 4 percent, according to a statement released Sept. 21. Retail sales should exceed $1 trillion during the season, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist.

“Consumers have ramped up their spending this year on the back of a strong labor market. We also expect slightly higher growth in disposable personal income during the upcoming holiday season compared with last year,” he said.

During a conference call, Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF’s chief economist, also noted that economic indicators support predictions that sales will increase during the holiday despite gloom about the economy. “Certainly there will be some speed bumps that come along,” he said.

But with unemployment low—it is 4.9 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—and consumer confidence increasing—it is at the highest level since the recession, according to a Sept. 27 statement from The Conference Board—things look good for the U.S. consumer.

“They have more money in their pockets, but they haven’t over-leveraged themselves,” Kleinhenz said.

Kleinhenz also is confident that the economy is in a much stronger position than it was last year when the NRF missed its holiday forecast.

“It would be a different picture if we had higher unemployment. We’ve been adding jobs, we aren’t at a break-out speed, but I don’t see where people are going to fall off of the side of the world and stop spending,” he said.

Last year, the NRF predicted that holiday retail sales would increase 3.7 percent. By the time the season’s last receipts were counted, the NRF announced that 2015 holiday sales had only increased 3 percent. Matthew Shay, the NRF’s president and chief executive officer, blamed the missed forecast on warm weather during the holiday season, inventory issues and retailers offering deep discounts early in the season.

The NRF also forecast sales increases for e-commerce and catalogs during the 2016 holiday season. It is forecast to increase between 7 percent and 10 percent to as much as $117 billion. Deloitte also predicted a robust forecast for holiday e-commerce sales, saying online sales will increase 17 percent to 19 percent, reaching $96 to $98 billion during the 2016 holiday season.

By Andrew Asch | Tuesday, October 4, 2016

ACE Report: Region’s jobs drop in August, but increase year-over-year

The monthly tally of Northeast Ohio private payrolls in August continued on its roller coaster of up one month and down the next, with the Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report showing a decrease of 3,626 jobs from July, a 0.31% decline.

Longer term, though, employment in the seven-county Akron-Cleveland metro area was 8,340 jobs higher in August than a year ago, a 0.71% increase.

“The economy is in its eighth year of economic recovery and still remains in its expansion phase of a payroll cycle,” reported Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model. “It has been on a slow path of economic growth, but the labor market continues to maintain momentum.”

Statewide, nonagricultural wage and salary employment grew by 77,000 jobs year-over-year, a 1.35% increase, based on a survey by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released last Tuesday, Sept. 20 by the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services.

Employment in all 88 Ohio counties decreased by 2,000 positions, from 5,505,400 in July to 5,503,400 in August.

Analyzing the state data, the nonprofit Policy Matters Ohio think tank, which is supported by foundations, community organizations and unions, reported that Ohio’s 12-month job growth rate of 1.35% continues to trail the national average of 1.7%, but it represents an improvement over the pace of job creation since the official start of the last national recession in 2007.

“Ohio needs many more months of five-figure employment growth to close the job gap, so (August’s) losses are disappointing,” said researcher Hannah Halbert in a press release. “However, the August loss is slight, and didn’t come close to wiping out recent gains. That’s an improvement from the earlier trend.”

Although Northeast Ohio and the state posted job losses, Kleinhenz noted that the country posted a less-than-expected gain of 151,000 jobs. CNBC reported that Wall Street economists were expecting the nonfarm payrolls report to show a gain of 180,000 in August.

“This figure still remains above the required gain to keep the unemployment rate moving down on a slow, yet steady, pace,” Kleinhenz said. “It is important to note that as the economy gets closer to its full employment — and we are getting close — finding workers increases in difficulty.”

Kleinhenz cited Bureau of Labor Statistics data that show job openings “rose sharply in July, and the rate of openings was a record high. Meanwhile, the increase in hiring was not as great. Openings have grown faster than hires for nearly every month over the last year and a half.”

Hirings differ from job gains since job gains are net of hirings, firings and employment lost from deaths.

“All in all the data suggest that firms are having a challenging time filling positions but also indicating that workers are moving to jobs that better suit them and their efficiencies,” Kleinhenz reported.

Seaonally adjusted

Ace-Report-Aug
Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Mar-16 1,175,919   478,541   697,378  215,829 960,090
Apr (est) 1,171,007   476,478   694,529  215,846 955,161
May (est) 1,176,132   478,537   697,595  217,167 958,965
Jun (est) 1,174,496   477,833   696,663  217,419 957,077
Jul (est) 1,178,355   479,348   699,007  218,912 959,442
Aug (est) 1,174,729   478,016   696,713  216,188 958,541
Recent Month’s Estimated Change Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
July ’16 to Aug ’16 (3,626)  (1,331.90)  (2,294) (2,724) (902)
Diff from Aug 2015 8,340  3,484  4,856 244 8,096
Trend Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
3-month 1,175,860 478,399 697,461  217,507  958,353
6-month 1,175,106 478,125 696,981  216,894  958,213

September 23, 2016

Photo by COLE GOLDBERG

ACE Report: July jobs growth continues region’s slow, steady path

That 1.03% jump is the fifth increase in the last six months. Since January, the number of people employed in the private sector in the seven counties of the Cleveland metropolitan area has grown by 12,014, to 1,178,449. The only decline was in June, when employment dropped by 1,138 to 1,174,474 jobs.

Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model, noted that U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports also indicated that, in July, there are more people joining the workforce and that average hourly earnings and average weekly hours increased as well.

“Consequently, there are more people employed, working longer hours and earning larger pay,” Kleinhenz said.

Kleinhenz said that second-quarter U.S. economic growth was well below expectations, rising at an annualized rate of 1.2%, nearly half the gain anticipated by consensus forecasts. He said growth slowed primarily because of an ongoing slump in business investment and slowdowns globally, especially in the energy sector.

Separately, in a report on the economy of the Cleveland metropolitan area released last Thursday, Aug. 25, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland said employment in the metropolitan area grew by 0.5% for the year ending September 2015, lower than employment growth in the state (1.2%) or the country (2.0%).

The report, by economist Joel Elvery, noted that in the 12 months ended September 2015, three sectors added more than 2,000 jobs: education and health services (2,531 jobs); trade, transportation and utilities (2,446); and hospitality (2,364). Two sectors had significant job losses over that 12-month period: professional and business services (2,265) and manufacturing (600).

Elvery attributed the weak employment growth in the Cleveland region relative to the state and country to “sustained population loss. However, population loss slowed greatly in 2013 and 2014. Hopefully, this headwind will fade.”

Looking ahead, another Cleveland Fed economist, senior vice president Mark Schweitzer, said the regional economic outlook is for steady, if modest, growth.

“We’ve had three quarters of relatively weak growth” in the Cleveland Fed’s district, Schweitzer said at a regional economic outlook session on Aug. 18 at the Cleveland Fed. “We’re still expecting things to be better in the coming quarter.”

The Cleveland Fed’s district includes all of Ohio, eastern Kentucky and parts of western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia.

Seaonally adjusted

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec 1,169,198   475,677   693,522 216,446 952,753
Jan (est.) 1,166,435   474,565   691,870 215,754 950,681
Feb (est.) 1,168,282   475,385   692,897 215,118 953,164
Mar (est.) 1,168,421   475,440   692,981 215,157 953,264
Apr (est.) 1,170,593   476,314   694,278 215,700 954,893
May (est.) 1,175,612   478,324   697,288 217,094 958,518
June (est.) 1,174,474   477,808   696,666 217,637 956,838
July (est.) 1,178,449   479,380   699,069 219,023 959,426

August 26, 2016

ACE Report: Despite job losses, other signs suggest economic growth

A projected decline of 2,343 jobs in June ended a five-month string of Northeast Ohio job gains, though the loss may only reflect a summertime blip since other indicators suggest job and economic growth, according to data in the latest Ahola Crain’sEmployment (ACE) Report.

Also, the month-to-month, 0.02%, drop in seasonally adjusted employment for the seven-county Akron-Cleveland region, is balanced against a year-over-year gain of 6,249 jobs, a 0.54% increase from June 2015 to June 2016.

“It’s hard to gauge whether or not the expected pullback in payrolls point to a sea change in regional economic activity,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model. “Payroll growth has been choppy.  A similar pattern was evident in 2015 as payrolls fell off in the summer but then rebounded in the fall.”

Private-sector employment in the metro area dropped 0.22%, or 2,589 jobs, between June 2015 and July 2015, according to the ACE model, before recovering.

The report projects that service producing firms account for about 2,279 lost jobs, while the goods producing sector shows only a loss of about 64 jobs.

Kleinhenz noted that the stronger dollar “has shown to be a significant speed bump for regional, state and U.S. manufacturing exporters and has created a drag on domestic employment, income and spending.”

He said the research office of the Ohio Development Services Agency estimates that Ohio merchandise exports declined 3%, or $50.7 billion, between 2014 and 2015. But, Kleinhenz reported, other indicators of the economy do point in a positive direction.

“Both the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes showed a pickup in the pace of growth in June and registered expansionary readings for survey’s employment component,” he said. “This bodes well for area income and spending.”

The U.S. manufacturing sector showed strong growth in June according to the latest monthly survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing supply executives indicated a Purchasing Managers’ Index increase of 1.9%

Of the 18 manufacturing sectors tracked by ISM, 13 reported growth in June led by printing, textiles, petroleum and coal products and food, beverage and tobacco products. The three industries reporting contractions are electrical equipment, appliances and components; transportation equipment; and rubber and plastic products.

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec (actual) 1,169,198    475,677   693,522 216,446 952,753
Jan (est.) 1,165,378    474,177   691,201 214,962 950,416
Feb (est.) 1,167,066    474,922   692,143 214,430 952,635
Mar (est.) 1,167,163    474,950   692,213 214,622 952,541
Apr (est.) 1,169,020    475,698   693,323 215,075 953,945
May (est.) 1,173,765    477,613   696,152 216,172 957,593
June (est) 1,171,422    476,634   694,788 216,108 955,313

 

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July 29, 2016

Retail after Brexit

“Brexit” i.e. Britain’s exit from European Union marked June 23rd 2016 as one of the most important chapter in the history of Britain and World. Although the outcome of brexit is still ambiguous but its effect on business is important to understand. The effect on prices, competition and living standards is likely to be a key factor at the bottom of any perceived success or failure of Brexit. This article is an attempt to analyze the potential effects of brexit on the retail environment.

Impact of Brexit

According to the latest Retail Sales Monitor Report released today, produced by KPMG and British Retail Consortium (BRC) retail sales were down by 0.5% on a like-for-like basis from June last year, when it increased by 1.8% from 2014. This downfall seems to be majorly because of anticipation of brexit voting results.

There are lot of reasons why aftermaths of brexit seems to be an overall negative for retail in UK and Europe. Let’s see some of the major reasons for negative impact:

1. Economic theory suggests that uncertainty of outcome of this vote is likely to have a detrimental effect on consumer spending and affect consumer confidence (which is already fragile) by creating an incentive to postpone big spending decisions and increasing the propensity to save. Consumers are likely to tighten their belts until they deem the economy to be secure. In words of Jack Kleinhenz, NRF Chief Economist –

“A big risk to the brexit issue is the uncertainty and volatility that puts pressure on financial conditions.”

2. According to HSBC, brexit would wipe 20% off the value of sterling; whilst the value of the euro is also likely to be damaged. For retailers with supply chain in Europe and the world this would mean higher costs to be passed on or absorbed, driving inflation or damaging margins. International tariffs are also likely to be increased and thereby increase in prices in the UK unless trade negotiations produce a successful outcome.

3. Brexit would end the free movement of labor from EU into the UK. People would still come into the UK, but without free access and permanent residency rights. This would result in higher wages and fewer workers which will lead to increase in retail automation, enabling retailers to reduce their operating costs.

Impact of Brexit

Impact of Brexit

Across retailers – varied impact

All retailers will not be affected equally. While grocery is the one to be affect minimum, fashion retailers are most at risk from the brexit fall-out as they buy a significant amount of goods overseas and pay in dollars. They will be hammered by increased import costs from the falling value of the pound. While fashion is most likely going to suffer from this separation, discount retailers are likely to benefit because of consumers conservative spending habits.

What next?

These seem to be the most likely scenarios but we don’t know actually what a world post-Brexit would look like. The likely impacts depend upon how well the process is managed, the shape of future relationships between UK & EU and where they land. But retailers need to be careful; this unpredictability should not be used as an excuse for not acting. Brexit will most likely impact the potential fundamental areas like supply chain, workforce and manufacturing, so some serious strategy planning must start now in order to avoid looking at a blank piece of paper later on.

 Aakash Varma | Jul 18, 2016

RETAIL SALES GROW AT ‘SOLID’ PACE, UP 0.8 PERCENT IN JUNE

Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants) continued to grow in June and were up 5.1 percent year-over-year, the National Retail Federation said today. Retail sales rose 0.8 percent unadjusted over May, according to NRF’s calculations.

“The consumer sector remains a visible and healthy force in the economy and is expected to fuel growth in the second half of 2016.”
Jack Kleinhenz
NRF Chief Economist

“June’s retail sales grew at a solid pace on the heels of a strong showing for both May and April,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumer spending rebounded strongly in the second quarter after two weak previous quarters. Additional job gains and rising wages are supporting the strength in retail sales and should provide momentum going into the second half of 2016.”

Most retail segments reported monthly gains, except for clothing and clothing accessories that reported a decrease and electronics that remained flat. Outsized gains were evident for building materials and supplies and were probably related to the strength in the housing market. In June, the three-month moving average of retail sales on a year-over-year basis increased 3.8 percent unadjusted.

“The bottom line is that today’s data shows that the consumer sector remains a visible and healthy force in the economy and is expected to fuel growth in the second half of 2016,” Kleinhenz said.

A few specifics from the report include:

  • Online and other non-store sales increased 1.1 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and 13.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Sales at clothing and accessories stores decreased 1.0 percent seasonally adjusted over May and decreased 0.1 percent unadjusted over last year.
  • Sales at general merchandise stores increased 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted over the previous month and 1.1 percent year-over-year.
  • Electronics and appliances stores’ sales stayed flat at 0.0 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and decreased 3.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Furniture and home furnishings stores’ sales increased 0.5 percent over the previous month and 3.0 percent unadjusted over last year.
  • Sales at building materials and supplies stores increased 3.9 percent over the previous month and 7.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Sporting goods stores’ sales increased 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 6.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.
  • Sales at health and personal care stores increased 0.7 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and 8.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Robin Roberts July 15, 2016

Survey: Families stock up for back to school after tightening belts last year

Families that decided to get another year’s use out of backpacks and laptops during last summer’s back-to-school shopping season are ready to reopen their wallets, according to a National Retail Federation survey released Thursday.

An average family with children in the elementary to high school range will spend about $673.57 on back-to-school items including clothing, electronics and other supplies, up nearly 7 percent from last fall.

Total back-to-school spending is expected to hit $27.3 billion this year. Add in school-related spending by families with college students, and the figure rises to $75.8 billion, up from $68 billion the year before.

Average household back-to-school spending has grown over the past decade, but often rises and falls as families stock up one year, then cut back as they get a second year out of longer-lasting purchases, said Ellen Davis, the retail trade group’s senior vice president of research and strategic initiatives, on a media call discussing the survey results

The $673.57 figure is up from $630.36 last year but only slightly tops the $669.28 the average family planned to spend in 2014, according to the NRF.

“The jeans might be too tight this year and the glue sticks might be dry and it’s time for a new iPad. That means a lot of families are going to be heading to the stores and online for back to school,” Davis said.

Families also may be feeling a little more confident about the economy, encouraging them to spend a little more, said Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF’s chief economist, on the call.

An increase in the number of shoppers with students going to college, who typically need more big-ticket items than families with younger children, helped boost overall school-related spending even as the amount the average family with college students planned to spend, $888.71, dipped slightly from last year, according to the trade group.

An increase in spending on electronics for younger students could be driving some of the growth in back-to-school spending as college spending stayed relatively flat, Davis said.

“Ten years ago, you saw a lot of college freshmen making big electronics purchases,” she said. “Now you’re seeing it shift to younger grades.”

Shoppers also said they’re planning to start back-to-school shopping earlier this year to spread out their budgets. There was a 10 percent increase in the percentage of families doing back-to-school shopping online, but discount stores are still the most popular choice, followed by department stores and clothing stores, according to the survey.

The survey, conducted for the NRF by Prosper Insights & Analytics, polled 6,809 consumers for a week in late June and early July.

lzumbach@chicagotribune.com

July 21, 2016

Twitter @laurenzumbach

RETAIL INDUSTRY SEES BETTER THAN EXPECTED JOB GAINS IN JUNE

Retail industry employment grew by 29,500 jobs in June over May, making up more than 10 percent of the total 287,000-job increase reported today by the Labor Department, according to calculations by the National Retail Federation, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

“The retail sector serves on the front line of the economy.”
Jack Kleinhenz
NRF Chief Economist

“The retail sector serves on the front line of the economy and showed solid job gains that made a strong contribution to the June employment report,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Today’s employment gains punctuate other employment data and indicate that economic activity picked up in the second quarter, which is certainly a positive step going into the second half of the year.”

While the monthly wage data was somewhat disappointing with an increase of only 2 cents per hour following the 6-cent increase in May, the better-than-expected job gains in June help alleviate some concern about the U.S. economy. Average hourly earnings moved in the right direction on a year-over-year basis with an increase of 2.6 percent.

On a three-month moving average, retail jobs as calculated by NRF have increased by 9,700 positions. Since June 2015, the retail industry has increased payrolls by 241,600 jobs.

June’s increase in jobs came even though the unemployment rate increased from 4.7 percent to 4.9 percent.

ACE Report: Northeast Ohio job growth paces ahead of state

The increase in the number of people employed in Northeast Ohio between April and May — 4,543 jobs — was greater than the employment growth between April 2015 and April 2016, when the region added 3,780 jobs, as tracked by the Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report.

The accelerating growth in May, an increase of 0.39% in the regional workforce, might not be a one-month blip.

Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model, said that it “portends an acceleration in regional economic activity.”

Kleinhenz’s analysis showed that the employment growth came, in raw numbers, more from the service sector than the manufacturing sector, since 80% of the region’s jobs are classified as service.

But on a percentage basis, more were created in the goods-producing sector. The region added 3,538 service jobs, a 0.37% increase, and 1,006 goods-producing, or manufacturing jobs, a 0.47% increase.

Strong growth in new manufacturing orders and modest gains in production and exports, Kleinhenz said, helped account for the growth in goods-producing jobs.

Employment growth in Northeast Ohio, the seven-county Cleveland-Akron area, outperformed on a percentage basis the growth in employment statewide.

In Ohio, nonagricultural employment increased 9,200 in May over April, from 5,477,600 to 5,486,800, a 0.17% increase, according to the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services, compared with Northeast Ohio’s 0.39% increase.

The growth in jobs and the declining unemployment rate — metro Cleveland’s unemployment rate is down to 4.8%, while Akron’s is 4.7% — hides a concern among economists about the declining participation of so-called prime-age men — males ages 25 to 54 — in the workforce.

A study released earlier in June by the White House Council of Economic Advisors found that only 88% of the men in that key age group are either working or looking for work. That’s down dramatically from a peak of 98% in 1954.

The study concludes, not surprisingly, that the demand for the labor of lower-skilled men is an important factor in the decline and reflects changing technology and automation and the globalization of the U.S. economy.

This decline in the prime-age male labor force participation rate, the study found, is particularly troubling since workers at this age are at their most productive.

“(B)ecause of this, the long-run decline has outsized implications for individual well-being as well as for broader economic growth,” the study found. “A large body of evidence has linked joblessness to worse economic prospects in the future, lower overall well-being and happiness, and higher mortality, as well as negative consequences for families and communities.”

The economic advisers recommend increasing investment in public infrastructure, creating construction jobs, would help boost prime-age male labor force participation. It also suggests reforming community colleges and other job-training systems.

Seaonally adjusted

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec (actual) 1,169,198 475,677   693,522 216,446 952,753
Jan (est.) 1,165,273 474,139   691,134 214,872 950,402
Feb (est.) 1,166,961 474,881   692,080 214,395 952,567
Mar (est.) 1,167,019 474,892   692,127 214,583 952,437
Apr (est.) 1,168,968 475,679   693,289 215,034 953,934
May (est.) 1,173,511 477,516   695,996 216,040 957,471
Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Apr ’16 to May ’16 4,543  1,836.96   2,706 1,006 3,538
Diff from May 2015 5,946  2,617   3,329 (1,736) 7,682
Trend
3-month 1,169,833  476,029   693,804 215,219 954,614
6-month 1,168,489  475,464   693,025 215,228 953,260

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