A projected decline of 2,343 jobs in June ended a five-month string of Northeast Ohio job gains, though the loss may only reflect a summertime blip since other indicators suggest job and economic growth, according to data in the latest Ahola Crain’sEmployment (ACE) Report.
Also, the month-to-month, 0.02%, drop in seasonally adjusted employment for the seven-county Akron-Cleveland region, is balanced against a year-over-year gain of 6,249 jobs, a 0.54% increase from June 2015 to June 2016.
“It’s hard to gauge whether or not the expected pullback in payrolls point to a sea change in regional economic activity,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model. “Payroll growth has been choppy. A similar pattern was evident in 2015 as payrolls fell off in the summer but then rebounded in the fall.”
Private-sector employment in the metro area dropped 0.22%, or 2,589 jobs, between June 2015 and July 2015, according to the ACE model, before recovering.
The report projects that service producing firms account for about 2,279 lost jobs, while the goods producing sector shows only a loss of about 64 jobs.
Kleinhenz noted that the stronger dollar “has shown to be a significant speed bump for regional, state and U.S. manufacturing exporters and has created a drag on domestic employment, income and spending.”
He said the research office of the Ohio Development Services Agency estimates that Ohio merchandise exports declined 3%, or $50.7 billion, between 2014 and 2015. But, Kleinhenz reported, other indicators of the economy do point in a positive direction.
“Both the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes showed a pickup in the pace of growth in June and registered expansionary readings for survey’s employment component,” he said. “This bodes well for area income and spending.”
The U.S. manufacturing sector showed strong growth in June according to the latest monthly survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. Manufacturing supply executives indicated a Purchasing Managers’ Index increase of 1.9%
Of the 18 manufacturing sectors tracked by ISM, 13 reported growth in June led by printing, textiles, petroleum and coal products and food, beverage and tobacco products. The three industries reporting contractions are electrical equipment, appliances and components; transportation equipment; and rubber and plastic products.
| Month | Non-Farm | Small (1-49) | Mid-Sized (50+) | Goods-producing | Service Producing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec (actual) | 1,169,198 | 475,677 | 693,522 | 216,446 | 952,753 |
| Jan (est.) | 1,165,378 | 474,177 | 691,201 | 214,962 | 950,416 |
| Feb (est.) | 1,167,066 | 474,922 | 692,143 | 214,430 | 952,635 |
| Mar (est.) | 1,167,163 | 474,950 | 692,213 | 214,622 | 952,541 |
| Apr (est.) | 1,169,020 | 475,698 | 693,323 | 215,075 | 953,945 |
| May (est.) | 1,173,765 | 477,613 | 696,152 | 216,172 | 957,593 |
| June (est) | 1,171,422 | 476,634 | 694,788 | 216,108 | 955,313 |
By JAY MILLER
July 29, 2016