ACE Report: Jobs jumped in July, but longer-term data is down
July was a good month for jobs in Northeast Ohio, as the region added 6,200 positions on a seasonally adjusted basis from June, according to the latest Ahola Crain’s Employment Report.
But dig a little deeper into the numbers and there’s less to be excited about.
For one, the July increase followed declines in the previous two months — losses of 5,527 jobs in June and 3,708 in May in the seven-county Northeast Ohio region. And, as Cleveland Heights economist Jack Kleinhenz, who developed the ACE Report economic model, pointed out in an analysis of the most recent data, the region’s estimated total employment of 1,173,216 in July represents 3,577 fewer jobs than the like month a year earlier.
The July total payroll estimate for the region also was ever-so-slightly below the six-month trend, which is 1,173,492, according to the ACE Report data.
Service-producing firms registered a larger share of the July increase, at 3,944 jobs, while the goods-producing sector showed a gain of 2,256 jobs, Kleinhenz reported. The report is based on payroll data from about 3,000 employers and is gathered by The Ahola Corp., a Brecksville-based payroll and human resources firm.
In his analysis, Kleinhenz wrote that the growth in regional employment last month “is consistent with July’s national employment release showing a solid increase of 209,000 jobs. The job gains are consistent with 2%-plus economic growth, steady consumer spending and Fed policy as currently projected for a December rate hike.”
The so-so ACE Report results are consistent with a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland report released on Thursday, Aug. 17, that found employment growth in Cleveland “has been weak,” and stated that while the economy here is growing, it’s doing so at a slower pace than that of Ohio and the nation as a whole.
Stronger growth could be ahead, Kleinhenz noted, as the U.S. economy “bounced back in the second quarter, growing at an estimated 2.6% on an annualized basis. This is more than twice the pace of the first quarter and brings expansion in the first half of 2017 close to the 2% underlying trend pace.”