Design Industry Business Conditions Remain On Solid Footing

Washington, D.C. (November 18, 2015) | The American Society of Interior Designers (ASID) released the third quarter Interior Design Billings Index (IDBI) on November 16, 2015. Billings by design firms ticked up slightly in September compared to June’s IDBI score of 57.1. The ASID indices are centered on 50 percent; above 50 indicates expansion and below 50, contraction. Based on the IDBI three-month moving average, billings have been in positive territory since the third quarter of 2011, and September’s score indicates positive revenue growth.

In addition, the September new product inquiry index score of 62.8 is up from the June score of 58.3 and has shown a series of steady positive scores since late 2011.

Business conditions vary by market specialization
Design firms specializing in single-family residential projects report growth during the second and third quarters of 2015, posting IDBI scores of 57.5 and 55.8 respectively. Through all of the second and most of the third quarters, with the exception of September, IDBI scores for retail, entertainment, office, and hospitality remained between 50 and 65. Meanwhile, the institutional sector billings continued to be erratic.

Construction spending continues rebound
Total new construction spending is approximately 13.7 percent above its August 2014 level. During the fourth quarter of 2015 it is anticipated that residential improvement spending will increase to $106.8 billion for the quarter, a year-over-year increase of 13.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2014.

Six month outlook – stronger business conditions expected
While the six-month business conditions index score of 66 for September is down from the June score of 74, the consistency of these scores (above 50) in positive territory suggest ongoing continued expansion for the design industry.

“Overall economic growth has slowed due to economic crosscurrents during the third quarter, but consumer spending, along with long-awaited housing and construction activity, are providing needed fuel to keep the economy on track,” said Jack Kleinhenz, ASID economist. “The slightly slower U.S. economy should prove to be temporary and not prove to be a major speed bump for the design industry, and panelists remain positive about the near term outlook for the industry.”

Download the full third quarter ASID Interior Design Billings Index Report.

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About the ASID Interior Design Billings Index
The IDBI is produced by ASID Research, under the leadership of ASID Vice President of Research and Knowledge Management David Krantz in partnership with Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D., and Russ Smith, Ph.D., both of Kleinhenz & Associates. The index, which was begun in November 2010, is a diffusion index compiled from a monthly ASID survey of 300 geographically diverse firms that primarily offer interior design services or offer interior design services as part of architectural, engineering, and other related practices. Resulting perspectives on current and future business conditions for the interior design industry are helpful indicators of changes in the direction of economic activity. The ASID indices are centered on 50 percent (above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 contraction).

About ASID Research
ASID Research provides the design industry with regular data, studies, and reports offering insight and analysis on the state of the industry and practice. Established to educate the design industry on the status of its health and the impact of design on the way we work, live and play, ASID Research offers quantitative and qualitative knowledge of the industry. Our goal is to provide observations, vision, and compilations that inspire and inform. Outcomes include the monthly ASID Interior Design Billings Index (IDBI), the ASID Industry Outlook report, third-party collaborations, and educational grants.

About ASID
The American Society of Interior Designers believes that design transforms lives. ASID serves the full range of the interior design profession and practice through the Society’s programs, networks, and advocacy. We thrive on the strength of cross-functional and interdisciplinary relationships among designers of all specialties, including workplace, healthcare, retail and hospitality, education, institutional, and residential. We lead interior designers in shared conversations around topics that matter: from evidence-based and human-centric design to social responsibility, well-being, and sustainability. We showcase the impact of design on the human experience and the value interior designers provide.

Published year:  https://www.asid.org/content/design-industry-business-conditions-remain-solid-footing#.VlSRx3arRD8
2015

 

ASID IDBI Third Quarter 2015

“Overall economic growth has slowed due to economic crosscurrents during the third quarter, but consumer spending,
along with long awaited housing and construction activity, are providing needed fuel to keep the economy on track.
Consumer and business spending should keep the design industry momentum in place for the near term. The slightly
slower U.S. economy should prove to be temporary and not prove to be a major speed bump for the design industry, and
panelists remain positive about the near term outlook for the industry.”

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW: INDICATORS MATCH EXPECTATIONS FOR YEAR OF THE GOAT

The Year of the Goat is a hot topic among retailers and those who celebrate the Chinese New Year. Experts in Chinese astrology say that the outlook for finance and wealth is favorable but exercise caution as there will continue to be volatile political situations causing economic activity and prices to fluctuate.

The indicators outlined in February’s Monthly Economic Review suggest the same outlook. The economy is recovering but continues to be characterized by fits and starts and highs and lows; while I remain optimistic about overall growth for the retail industry in 2015, recently released economic data have come in weaker than expected — puzzling, as the latter half of 2014 showed rapid growth in several areas.

Retail sales came in January lower than expected, but it remains unclear if it is due to seasonal issues like the weather or weaker consumer demand. Consumer sentiment remains strong but continues to fluctuate, reflecting a skittish American consumer. On the other hand, January registered another solid gain in payrolls, and if the rebound in wages isn’t a one-off wonder, there is much to look forward to.

This month’s full report includes these highlights:

Retail Sales

The extra money coming from lower gas prices may be going toward savings, paying off debt or spending on services rather than retail goods and merchandise.

Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment

The softening in retail sales and consumer sentiment poses some downside risk for consumer spending in the first quarter of 2015.

E-commerce

E-commerce sales continued to grow but the pace of growth slowed from 3.6 percent in the previous quarter to 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter.

Gross Domestic Product and Unemployment

GDP is expected to increase 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2015 and the unemployment rate is set to decrease from 5.7 to 5.6 percent.

Housing Market

Attractive mortgage rates and easier credit conditions along with stronger job and income growth are reinforcing expected growth in the housing market in 2015.

Employment

As the labor market continues to expand, the unemployment rate should drop, enabling wage growth to slowly begin to increase. Wages should pick up between 2.5 and 3 percent on an annual rate in late 2015 and early 2016.

Retail Jobs and Openings

Total retail employment across all industry segments increased 45,900 to 15.6 million in January. There were 434,000 job openings in the retail industry on the last business day of December.

Personal Income and Spending

The wage and salary component of personal income improved a meager 0.1 percent in December and seems to be at odds with the strong December employment report. Nonetheless, wage growth is stronger than last year and is trending modestly higher despite December’s weak growth.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The index is well above zero, indicating the economy is growing above its historical trend; some inflationary pressure in the coming months is expected.