Year-over-year October jobs drop 0.4% in region

Although the uptick shouldn’t be seen as part of a long-term trend, the increase of an estimated 1,250 jobs in the goods-producing sector of the Northeast Ohio economy in October largely offset a decline in service-sector payrolls for the month, resulting in a net regional loss of 57 jobs from September, according to the latest Crain’s Employment Report (CER).

That’s a barely measurable percentage of the total October payrolls, which were 1,168,796 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Meanwhile, service-providing firms appear to have decreased payrolls by 1,306 during October. Importantly, though, Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who developed the CER model, reports that the service sector is showing a gain of 972 jobs over the level in October 2016.

Overall, estimated October payrolls were down 5,255 from a year ago, a 0.4% loss. The larger service sector employed an estimated 963,241 people in October; the goods-producing sector had 205,555 workers on payrolls.

“The recent gain in the manufacturing sector is being helped by strong foreign demand and a softer dollar,” Kleinhenz said. “The global economy has shifted into higher gear, and foreign demand for U.S. goods has accelerated, reaching their highest level since December 2014.”

Kleinhenz noted that new factory orders were up 1.4% in September, the latest month available, and that new orders for manufactured goods jumped nearly 7% since September 2016, “a healthy pickup that is consistent with recent business optimism.”

The one-month increase in jobs in the goods-producing sector — largely comprising the manufacturing and construction industries — comes on the heels of a month-to-month loss of 3,544 between August and September. In addition, the sector has lost about 6,228 jobs since October 2016, according to CER data.

The year-over-year loss is part of an expected long-term decline in manufacturing jobs, according to a recent report from Team Northeast Ohio.

The business development nonprofit forecasts that the number of jobs in the manufacturing sector in the 18-county region of Northeast Ohio it surveys will decline from 265,437 in 2017 to 236,179 by 2027, a drop of 11%.

The flat employment seen in the seven-county region compares unfavorably to a statewide survey taken by ADP LLC. ADP’s report estimates that Ohio added 8,280 jobs in October. ADP is a national business outsourcing firm that surveys 406,000 U.S. companies monthly and breaks down the data to the state level for its report.



Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
March 2017 Actual 1,176,199   478,968   697,231 211,385 964,814
April (est) 1,173,870   478,121   695,749 209,521 964,349
May (est) 1,170,995   477,036   693,959 207,776 963,219
June(est) 1,167,608   475,681   691,927 206,819 960,789
July(est) 1,172,637   477,722   694,915 207,818 964,819
August (est) 1,173,201   477,957   695,244 207,849 965,352
Sept (est) 1,168,852   476,378   692,474 204,305 964,547
Oct (est) 1,168,796   476,268   692,528 205,555 963,241
Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Sept ’17 to Oct ’17 (57)   (110.91)   54 1,250 (1,306)
Diff from Oct 2016 (5,255)   (1,772)   (3,484) (6,228) 972
3-month 1,170,283   476,868   693,415 205,903 964,380
6-month 1,170,348   476,840   693,508 206,687 963,661

Slower auto production leads to 4,286-job drop

Employment fell in Northeast Ohio in September by an estimated 4,286 jobs, according to the latest Crain’s Employment Report (CER), attributable in large measure to a decline in vehicle production.

The drop represents a 0.4% decline in the local workforce. It puts the estimate of employment in the seven-county Northeast Ohio region employed at 1,169,431 people in September, down from 1,173,717 in August.

The region has lost 6,682 jobs, or 0.6%, from an estimate of 1,176,113 jobs in September 2016.

Cleveland Heights economist Jack Kleinhenz, who developed the CER model, attributed the decline to slower auto production. The goods-producing sector of the regional economy, which includes auto production and other manufacturing jobs, lost 3,601 jobs in September, a 1.7% decline, while the service sector, which employs four times as many people as the goods sector, lost only 685 jobs, for a lost of less than 0.1%.

U.S. auto production has slowed in recent months, declining from 326,000 units in August 2016 to 252,800 units in August 2017, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That has led to shutdowns or layoffs at the region’s auto plants. For example, General Motors Corp. scheduled nine weeks of down time at its assembly plant in Lordstown for 2017, according to the Youngstown Vindicator .

By contrast, construction contractors were experiencing a shortage of experienced labor, making it difficult to fill newly created positions, according to regional information in the Federal Reserve Bank’s September summary of economic conditions, or Beige Book.

The Beige Book also reports that disruptions to spending and production are expected to reduce economic activity nationally in the third quarter of the year but boost it in the fourth quarter. Kleinhenz, who is chief economist for the National Retail Federation, agrees with that outlook, as he expects hurricane-hit households to replace lost vehicles and to fix up damaged homes, while businesses in the path of the hurricanes return to full operations in the last quarter of the year.

“A key reason to remain upbeat about the outlook is the optimism evident in business and consumer sentiment surveys,” he reported.

He cited, for example, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, which jumped 6.0 points in early October to 101.1, its highest level since the start of 2004.

“The surge appears to be driven by increased optimism about employment and income prospects,” Kleinhenz said, though he noted that the NFIB small business sentiment index dropped. However, the index still held at a level higher than a year ago.

Jay Miller

Crain’s Cleveland Business

ACE Report: Jobs jumped in July, but longer-term data is down

ACE Report: Jobs jumped in July, but longer-term data is down

Scott Suttell

July was a good month for jobs in Northeast Ohio, as the region added 6,200 positions on a seasonally adjusted basis from June, according to the latest Ahola Crain’s Employment Report.
But dig a little deeper into the numbers and there’s less to be excited about.

For one, the July increase followed declines in the previous two months — losses of 5,527 jobs in June and 3,708 in May in the seven-county Northeast Ohio region. And, as Cleveland Heights economist Jack Kleinhenz, who developed the ACE Report economic model, pointed out in an analysis of the most recent data, the region’s estimated total employment of 1,173,216 in July represents 3,577 fewer jobs than the like month a year earlier.

The July total payroll estimate for the region also was ever-so-slightly below the six-month trend, which is 1,173,492, according to the ACE Report data.

Service-producing firms registered a larger share of the July increase, at 3,944 jobs, while the goods-producing sector showed a gain of 2,256 jobs, Kleinhenz reported. The report is based on payroll data from about 3,000 employers and is gathered by The Ahola Corp., a Brecksville-based payroll and human resources firm.

In his analysis, Kleinhenz wrote that the growth in regional employment last month “is consistent with July’s national employment release showing a solid increase of 209,000 jobs. The job gains are consistent with 2%-plus economic growth, steady consumer spending and Fed policy as currently projected for a December rate hike.”

The so-so ACE Report results are consistent with a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland report released on Thursday, Aug. 17, that found employment growth in Cleveland “has been weak,” and stated that while the economy here is growing, it’s doing so at a slower pace than that of Ohio and the nation as a whole.
Stronger growth could be ahead, Kleinhenz noted, as the U.S. economy “bounced back in the second quarter, growing at an estimated 2.6% on an annualized basis. This is more than twice the pace of the first quarter and brings expansion in the first half of 2017 close to the 2% underlying trend pace.”

ACE Report: NEO goods-producing sector takes biggest jobs hit in June

The regional employment roller coaster continued in June with Northeast Ohio losing 5,518 jobs from the May total, as total private sector employment dropped to a projected 1,167,386 — a 0.47% loss. Looking year-to-year, past the monthly fluctuations, the job loss in the seven-county metropolitan area since June 2016 is 0.02%, or 290 jobs, according to the Ahola Crain’s Employment, or ACE, Report.

The June job loss was heaviest in the goods-producing section, which includes manufacturing and construction — 3,380 jobs lost between May and June versus 2,138 jobs lost in the larger service sector, which accounts for 82% of the private sector jobs tracked in the ACE survey.

Year over year, the goods sector lost 4,912 jobs versus a gain of 4,621 jobs in services.

Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model, said the losses are not a serious concern.

“Too much should not be made out of June’s decline,” he said. “It does not point to any major concerns for regional growth. The national and regional economies continue to wander forward at a moderate pace.”

Kleinhenz attributed part of the decline to the auto industry, a large employer in the region, and the summer shutdowns of auto plants.

The July 12 Beige Book, the Federal Reserve Bank’s report on the economy, noted that payrolls in the Fourth District, which includes all of Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky, and the northern panhandle of West Virginia, continued to expand since the last Beige Book report released May 31, although at a slightly slower pace.

Longer term and nationally, Kleinhenz noted that the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported the manufacturing sector nationally grew in June and the overall economy grew for the 97th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing employment index showed a 3.7% increase over May.

“The labor market remains very healthy and continues to show the confidence in workers willing to leave one job for another,” Kleinhenz said.

Closer to home, the recent Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services, in its “2024 Job Outlook,” is projecting that employment in the region will grow by 74,700 jobs to 1,475,300 by 2024. That’s a 5.3% increase over the 1,400,600 employed in the 2014 base year. The projected growth will come despite a loss of 7,200 manufacturing jobs.

The growth sectors include health care (27,400 jobs), food preparation and serving (7,100) and transportation and material handling (5,000). Many of the jobs that are expected to grow the fastest were in low-paying occupations such as home health aide and restaurant cooks. The report also projected significant demand for registered nurses and computer systems analysts.

Seasonally Adjusted Data

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec 2016 Actual 1,169,560   476,230  693,330 210,690 958,870
Jan (est) 1,175,104   478,434  696,670 212,456 962,648
Feb (est) 1,177,120   479,248  697,872 212,924 964,196
March (est) 1,175,534   478,604  696,930 212,610 962,924
Apr (est) 1,176,482   479,069  697,413 211,641 964,841
May (est) 1,172,905   477,697  695,208 209,786 963,119
June (est) 1,167,386   475,617  691,770 206,406 960,980

July 21, 2017


ACE Report: ‘Tightening’ NEO job market loses 2,505 jobs last month

The Cleveland-Akron area lost 2,505 jobs last month, a 0.21% decline from April, according to the Ahola Crain’s Employment Report, or ACE Report.

The report estimates that the seven-county Northeast Ohio region employed 1,174,540 people in May, down from 1,177,045 in April.

The report is based on payroll data from 3,000 employers, gathered by The Ahola Corp., a Brecksville payroll and human services firm.

Cleveland Heights economist Jack Kleinhenz, who developed the ACE Report economic model, said the decline in the May seven-county employment estimate, “while perhaps a bit discouraging, can be an indication that labor markets are tightening.”

He cited a National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) jobs report from May that found business owners are upbeat about sales and are looking to add staff, but that firms say it’s hard to find qualified workers.

Kleinhenz said two factors are key to the shrinking labor pool.

Northeast Ohio’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in April from 6.2% in March, according to data from the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. That translates into a decline in the jobless of 14,200 people, from 85,900 to 71,700. At the same time, baby boomers are retiring.

To Kleinhenz that suggests that “there are not enough people out of work to go back to work.”

Also, Kleinhenz sees a longer-term upward trend, with regional employment growing by 2,647 in the 12-month period ending in May, though that gain was accomplished by five up months overcoming seven months of job declines. By comparison, national employment has registered 80 straight months of increase.

The greatest loss in jobs came in the goods-producing sector, which includes manufacturing and construction, a loss of 1,655 jobs versus the loss of 850 service sector jobs. That correlates, Kleinhenz said, to recent U.S. Census figures showing that factory orders declined 0.2% in May.

Manufacturing production was down 0.4%, Kleinhenz said, including a 2% decline in motor vehicle output.

“I continue to expect a pickup in the pace of economic activity in the second quarter and modest growth for the remainder of 2017,” Kleinhenz said. “The second-quarter 2017 National Association for Business Economics outlook median forecast calls for average annual GDP growth of 2.2% for 2017 as a whole.”

Seasonally adjusted data

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec 2016 1,169,560   476,230   693,330   210,690 958,870
January 1,173,253   477,635   695,618   212,773 960,480
February 1,175,747   478,633   697,113   213,467 962,280
March 1,175,054   478,338   696,715   213,524 961,530
April 1,177,045   479,227   697,818   212,773 964,273
May 1,174,540   478,291   963,423   963,423 963,423
 June 16, 2017

ACE Report: March jobs are down, but year-over-year stats are up

The Cleveland-Akron metropolitan area lost 798 jobs between February and March of this year, but that slight dip means little to the long-term outlook since the region gained 708 jobs between March 2016 and March 2017 with employment in March at 1,175,598 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

“We are still holding our own relative to last year, but at a slower pace currently,” wrote Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model, in his analysis. “The economy is attempting to turn the corner toward a bit faster growth, but the momentum has been slower than expected. The unexpected backsliding in March car sales and February’s flat consumer spending confirm a sluggish start to the spring selling season.”

Kleinhenz wrote that policy uncertainties due to the wrangling of issues by the Trump administration and Congress — in particular the size, composition and the timing of any tax cut and infrastructure spending package — are complicating the outlook.

Kleinhenz added that a conundrum within the labor market is a resistance to wage growth in the face of growing job openings and a shortage of qualified workers for skilled positions.

“Until wage gains accelerate, overall economic spending is expected to continue on a moderate path,” he wrote.

In its annual Labor Day report last year, Policy Matters Ohio, the labor-backed Cleveland think tank, focused on those wages. It argued that while pay in Ohio has been growing — to $16.61 an hour for the median worker — it remains far behind what the median wage was in 1979 when adjusted for inflation.

“Wages are behind in large part because our fastest-growing sectors and our most common jobs are low wage,” the report, “Still Struggling: The State of Working Ohio 2016,” said. “Of our 13 most common occupations, only two pay more than 200% of the official poverty line for a family of three.”

The state lost 75,000 relatively well-paying manufacturing jobs between December 2007 and June 2016, Policy Matters reported, while gaining 176,700 lower-paying jobs in education and the health services and the leisure and hospitality industries.

A pair of economic analysts at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland see wage growth a little differently.

In an “Economic Commentary” released in March, Roberto Pinheiro and Meifeng Yang contend that wage growth nationally has been sluggish since the Great Recession due mostly to weak growth in labor productivity and lower-than-expected inflation. But they argue that “wage growth since late 2014 has actually been above what would be consistent with realized labor productivity growth and inflation, and this trend in wages reflects an increase in labor’s share of income.”

This, they write, shows “evidence that this increase in the labor share may be due to a reversal of the trend to replace labor with capital.”


Seasonally adjusted employment

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Sept 2016 (act) 1,175,448   478,642 696,805 211,538 963,910
Oct (est) 1,163,140   473,584 689,555 209,986 953,154
Nov (est) 1,165,227   474,391 690,837 210,986 954,241
Dec (est) 1,164,811   474,220 690,591 210,926 953,885
Jan (est) 1,174,442   478,124 696,318 212,913 961,530
Feb (est) 1,176,396   478,901 697,495 213,530 962,866
Mar(est) 1,175,598   478,561 697,037 213,607 961,990


April 21, 2017

ACE Report: Economy is ‘inching forward’ this year

The seven counties of Northeast Ohio added 943 jobs in February, a modest number, but the second straight month of job increases, according to the Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report.

Year-over-year, payrolls were up by 5,422 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, a 0.46% increase.

February payrolls for the Cleveland Akron Metropolitan Area equaled 1,180,415 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Between February 2016 and February 2017, most of the increase in jobs came from the service section, 5,137 jobs, while the goods-producing sector showed a gain of 285 jobs.

“Recent economic data releases are very encouraging about the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy, and (we) should in turn have a similar expectation for economic activity in Northeast Ohio,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model.

“The data in many cases continues on a roller coaster pattern, which makes the strength of the momentum hard to detect,” Kleinhenz said. “Nonetheless, (the data) include the NFIB’s small business optimism index that remains elevated; housing starts increased in February; the job opening and labor turnover survey was unchanged but positive; February’s retail sales were tepid; business inventories increased; and industrial production was unchanged after dipping in January.”

That forecast agrees with a recently released estimate from economists at Pittsburgh-based PNC Financial Service Group, which described the Northeast Ohio economy as “inching forward” during the first quarter of 2017.

“The region’s economic growth is hamstrung, however, by a manufacturing industry that is struggling on multiple fronts,” the report stated. “Steel production and employment in 2016 had been hit hard by cheap imports and the collapse in energy prices that reduced investment in oil and gas wells.”

The PNC economists did see hopeful signs — the oil and gas rig count began to edge up in the last half of 2016, high steel tariffs are expected to help domestic producers, and the auto industry is coming off a record year — at least in the short term.

“Longer term, continued population loss will cause Northeast Ohio to be a below-average performer in terms of job growth,” the report stated before ending on a more optimistic note.

“Though still only in their early development stages, manufacturing hubs for the machinery of new energy technologies and transportation equipment hold great promise for those regions that can attract and cultivate them,” according to the report. “The (Northeast Ohio) region’s lower costs and availability of underutilized assets will be an important tool in attracting new industries and opportunities into the region in the years ahead.”

Seaonally adjusted data

Month Non-Farm  Small  (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Sept 2016 (act) 1,175,448  478,642   696,805   211,538 963,910
Oct (est) 1,173,393  477,608   695,784   213,994 959,399
Nov (est) 1,174,298  477,939   696,359   214,709 959,589
Dec (est) 1,172,037  476,994   695,043   214,643 957,394
Jan (est) 1,179,472  480,031   699,441   215,846 963,626
Feb (est) 1,180,415  480,404   700,011   216,172 964,243
 By  March 24, 2017

ACE Report: Service sector keys Northeast Ohio job growth

Employment in the Cleveland-Akron metropolitan area was up by 8,017 jobs in January, recovering from a decline in December, according to an estimate from the Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report.

Seasonally adjusted, the region saw employment rise to 1,179,851 from 1,171,834 a month earlier, a 0.68% increase. Most of the growth, 6,900 jobs, was in the service sector, though the goods producing sector saw a rise of 1,196 jobs. In December, the region lost 1,879 jobs.

The estimates also show a 0.35% increase over the number of people working a year earlier, an increase of 4,102 jobs.

“January’s employment estimates exceeded both the three-month and six-month average,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE model. “The pace of job creation suggests that growth in regional economic activity appears to be at a modest pace early in 2017.”

Kleinhenz attributed that optimism to key regional and national trends affecting the estimates. He said unemployment claims for the region decreased by 20% compared with the like month a year ago, and, nationally, construction and retail sales both show growth.

Despite the occasional month-to-month wobble, employment in the region has been rising steadily, if slowly. Since January 2013, the region’s seasonally adjusted employment has grown by 30,654 jobs, a 2.67% increase. During the same time period, the unemployment rate has dropped from 7.8% to 5.1%, according to the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services.

That labor market tightening may be putting pressure on wages to rise. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., for example, said in late January that it would shrink a training program that new employees must complete to earn $10 an hour to three months from six months. Two years ago, the company increased its minimum wage to $9 an hour.

More broadly, the Society for Human Resource Management reported at the end of January that wages are forecast to grow by an average of 3.2% year over year during the first quarter of 2017. Over 2016, the federal Bureau of Labor Standards reported, the average hourly wage grew by 2.9%.

Glassdoor, the online job site, reported on Jan. 31 that annual median base pay hit 3.2%.“The tight U.S. labor market continues to drive wages up in many cities across the country,” said Glassdoor chief economist Andrew Chamberlain in a news release. Glassdoor labor market reports, he said, “show a picture of a strong labor market.”


Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
June 2016 1,167,272   475,237    692,035   211,159    956,113
July  (est) 1,175,426   478,218    697,208   217,488    957,938
Aug (est) 1,171,406  476,740    694,667   214,497    956,909
Sept (est) 1,170,029  476,266    693,763   213,003    957,026
Oct (est) 1,173,327   477,567    695,759   214,185    959,142
Nov (est) 1,174,185  477,878    696,306   214,891    959,294
Dec (est) 1,171,834  476,901    694,934   214,765    957,070
Jan (est) 1,179,851  480,192    699,659   215,821    964,031

Recent Month’s Estimated Change

Month Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
Dec ’16 to Jan ’17 8,017 3,291.49   4,725   1,056   6,961
Diff from Jan 2016 4,102 1,733   2,369   (160)   4,262


Date Non-Farm Small (1-49) Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
3-month 1,175,290  478,324   696,967    215,159    960,131
6-month 1,173,439  477,591   695,848    214,527    958,912


February 24, 2017

ACE Report: NE Ohio job-creation engine sputtered at the end of 2016

The end of 2016 was not kind to Northeast Ohio’s job market, according to the latest Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report.

Seasonally adjusted employment in December for the seven-county area of Cleveland and Akron measured by the report was 1,170,985, a decline of 1,879 jobs from 1,172,864 in November. And November was no great shakes, either; its total job number was just 286 higher than the October figure calculated in the ACE Report.

Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model, noted in an analysis of the December data that the seasonally adjusted jobs figure for last month “is below its three-month and six-month average and suggests economic activity and job growth has lost some momentum from the faster pace that was evident in prior months.”
But it’s impossible to draw firm conclusions from one subpar month in one statistical category.

Kleinhenz wrote in his analysis, “We are not sure that the regional economy has made a fundamental change, nor has the national economy, since employment is only one gauge that measures economic activity.” He noted, for instance, that a gauge of economic activity created by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia rose in Ohio by 2.2% on a year-over-year basis, and recent construction and retail sales data “also show gains.”

Kleinhenz added that “choppy employment” around the end of a calendar year “is not unusual given shifting seasonal hiring patterns. It is typical for the trajectory of monthly employment to be pared significantly back. We expect a similar pattern to take place and recognize that some dampening of the pace of employment gains is projected.”

Kleinhenz wrote in his analysis that regional initial unemployment claims, a factor in the ACE Report model, had been at “historically low levels” but then “kicked up in the middle of December.” Such claims “are usually variable around the holidays because of winter weather, school closures and shifting seasonal hiring patterns,” according to Kleinhenz.

Meanwhile, he wrote, January employment “looks to be a better month based upon a reduction in initial unemployment claims.” Also, he noted that “most measures” of consumer and business sentiment “have shown notable improvement since the November election, raising expectation that economic activity will accelerate at the national and regional levels.”

The national economy “is expected to gain further traction in 2017,” according to Kleinhenz. “Regional growth during 2016 might have been stronger had it not been for weakness in metals production and the energy industry. In addition, the weak global economy and a strong dollar hurt export related firms output and associated employment.”

Despite these developments, he wrote, “the regional outlook (is) promising as national indexes tracking production and new orders in the most recent ISM (Institute for Supply Management) survey rose to levels posted in late-2014.”

Month Non-Farm Small(1-49) Mid-Sized Goods Service
(50+) Producing Producing
June 2016 (act) 1,167,272 475,237 692,035 211,159 956,113
July (est) 1,175,080 478,077 697,003 217,432 957,648
Aug (est) 1,171,211 476,665 694,546 214,391 956,821
Sept (est) 1,169,702 476,139 693,563 212,852 956,851
Oct (est) 1,172,614 477,287 695,327 213,914 958,700
Nov (est) 1,172,864 477,358 695,506 214,400 958,463
Dec (est) 1,170,985 476,588 694,397 214,137 956,848

Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Nov ’16 to Dec ’16 (1,879) (770.15) (1,108) (264) (1,615)
Diff from Dec 2015 1,757 883 874 (2,085) 3,842

3-month 1,172,154 477,078 695,077 214,150 958,004
6-month 1,172,076 477,019 695,057 214,521 957,555

ACE Report: Northeast Ohio posts small employment gain in November

Northeast Ohio eked out a small employment gain in November, according to the latest Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report.

Seasonally adjusted employment in November for the seven-county area of Cleveland and Akron measured by the report was 1,172,672, a gain of just 286 jobs from 1,172,386 in October.

The change is small, but Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model noted it was unusual in this respect: The region lost 152 service jobs from October to November, but it added 438 jobs in goods-producing fields.

“The offset is a turnaround from recent trends where the growth in service jobs offset losses in manufacturing,” Kleinhenz wrote in an analysis of the November ACE Report data.

The region remains in positive jobs territory from a year ago. Kleinhenz said November employment in Northeast Ohio was up by 4,570 jobs from the like month of 2015.

November’s jobs figure also is above the ACE Report’s seasonally adjusted three- and six-month averages, which “suggests economic activity and job growth has picked up some momentum from the slower pace of job growth the region experienced in the second quarter,” according to Kleinhenz.

Underlying November’s ACE Report  figures are some positive regional and national trends.

For instance, Kleinhenz wrote in his analysis that  unemployment claims for the region “decreased by 22% over the same month a year ago. Coincidental measures for Ohio are up 2.2%, and  construction put in place and retail sales show gains in the last three months.”

National indicators show an economy that is picking up the pace.

U.S. Gross Domestic Product was revised higher to 3.2% for the third quarter, which Kleinhenz wrote is a “significant number relative to the average 2.2% growth we have seen  in this expansion.”

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index in November posted a reading of 53.2, which ties the fastest pace of this  manufacturing sector indicator over the past 18 months, according to Kleinhenz. (A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding.)

He also noted that the Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index, a broader measure of the health of the labor market than provided by any single report, “indicates that the labor market is continuing its path of improvement.”

The Fed’s labor index increased by 1.5 points in November, about the same level of improvement as in October.

“All in all, these national trends should be a good indicator of what to expect at the state and regional levels,” Kleinhenz concluded.

Seaonally adjusted data

Month Non-Farm  Small (1-49)  Mid-Sized (50+) Goods-producing Service Producing
June 2016 (act) 1,167,272   475,237   692,035 211,159 956,113
July (est) 1,175,087   478,079   697,008 217,449 957,638
Aug (est) 1,171,162   476,645   694,518 214,389 956,773
Sept (est) 1,169,567   476,086   693,480 212,792 956,775
Oct (est) 1,172,386   477,203   695,183 213,748 958,638
Nov (est) 1,172,672   477,293   695,380 214,186 958,486
Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Oct ’16 to Nov ’16 286   89.50   197 438 (152)
Diff from Nov 2015 4,570   2,016   2,554 (1,403) 5,973
3-month 1,171,542   476,861   694,681 213,575 957,966
6-month 1,171,358   476,757   694,601 213,954 957,404