Retail Pundits Reveal Key Spending Themes This Holiday 2018 Shopping Season

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A lot of people will shop for the holidays! And they’ll buy online! And they will look at their phones a lot, too!

Duh.

It’s that time of year again, folks, when we retail reporter types can sometimes spew breathless pronouncements on the sometimes not-so-revelatory predictions pundits make on the make-or-break holiday selling season, when merchants generate a disproportionate chunk of their annual sales.

Here’s some predictions worth noting. Let the games begin.

Feeling Financially Flush, Consumers Will Spend More Than They Have In Five Years

The National Retail Federation expects holiday retail sales in November and December — excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants — to rise between 4.3% and 4.8% over 2017, for a total of  $720.89 billion. The forecast compares with an average annual increase of 3.9% over the past five years.

“The combination of increased job creation, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in [consumers’] net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend,” the NRF’s chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said, in a statement.

Online retail will be the most popular shopping destination, with 60% of consumers planning e-commerce gifting this holiday season, according to a Deloitte survey.

An estimated 57% of holiday dollars will be spent online, eclipsing in-store purchasing, which is forecasted to account for 36% of consumer spending.

More than 70% of shoppers surveyed noted free shipping, while two-thirds cited time savings and home delivery, as the key reasons they’ll buy online this holiday, the survey found.

Of the nearly 50% of consumers who plan to use their smartphones to shop this holiday, 67% plan to use mobile to make a purchase, up from 57% last year.

Mass merchants are the second most popular venue for holiday shoppers (52%, up from 44% in 2017). Traditional department stores and off-price retailers round out the top-four shopping destinations.

Fewer Baubles And Blouses, More Brunches And Broadway Shows

Over the last five years, U.S. consumers have diverted more of their holiday budgets to experiences such as home entertaining and socializing away from home, which now represent 40%, or $611, of  survey respondents’ planned holiday budgets, the Deloitte study found.

While physical gift purchases, from clothes to household appliances, still dominate holiday purchases, they’re down trending. The number of shoppers who plan to buy a product has dropped 11% from 2017, according to Accenture. By contrast, shoppers planning to buy an experience or service-geared gift, from a meal out and a concert ticket to a cleaning service, rose 5%.

Millennials Will Be The Biggest Spenders, Practicing Conscious Consumption

An estimated 49% of younger Millennials plan to spend more this holiday than in 2017, while only 13% of their Baby Boomer counterparts expect to spend more than they did a year.

And Generation Y’s shopping venues will reflect their belief system. For example, 54% of younger Millennials said retailers have a duty to address broader social and political issues, such as diversity, be it gender, ethnic or disability inclusion, and they will reward merchants that do just that: 51% of younger Millennials surveyed are more likely to shop at a retailer that demonstrates awareness of these issues, the Accenture study found. “Our research suggests that younger Millennials are more likely to choose one brand over another if that brand demonstrates inclusion and diversity in terms of its promotions and offers, their in-store experience, their product range, and their environmental awareness,” said Jill Standish, senior managing director and head of Accenture’s retail practice, in a statement.

I’ve been a business journalist specializing in the retail industry for over a decade, covering consumer news, company profiles and industry analysis pieces, as well as the intersection of business news and shopping, fashion and social trends.

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Retail

5 Things Retailers Need to Consider Heading Into the 2018 Holiday Shopping Season

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For most retailers, the 2018 holiday shopping season will present their biggest opportunity of the year to engage with customers. It will also represent the bulk of their annual sales.

As a result, this time of year is crucial for retailers to achieve success. With that in mind, current conditions make this holiday shopping season look positive for retailers.

1. Consumers Are Upbeat About Spending 

From what we’ve seen, customers are excited about shopping this year.

Brick-and-mortar sales will grow 1.4 percent and online growth is expected to reach 14 percent, according to Forrester Analytics: Online Holiday Retail Sales Forecast, 2018 (U.S.). Various studies also show that the average U.S. consumer will spend more during the upcoming holiday season, jumping from $1,226 per consumer to $1,536.

Deloitte’s annual holiday economic forecast looks great for retailers as well. Consumers seem confident about the economy, their household financial situations, and their spending plans for the upcoming holiday season.

Deloitte’s consumer survey shows online spending continues to grow and is expected to account for 57 percent of all purchases. Also, Deloitte’s research notes that shoppers are enthusiastic about the holiday season and remain price- and value-focused.

Based on the report, retailers are in a good spot to influence where consumers shop this year as many shoppers are entering the season undecided.

2. Thanksgiving is Coming Early

Consumers are doing their holiday shopping earlier based on a study by Bazaarvoice. An early Thanksgiving helps spread the holiday shopping theme to consumers.

Thanksgiving is as early as it can be this year (Nov. 22) which could prove helpful to retailers. Sixty percent of consumers say they begin their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving . This is particularly important this year because there will be 33 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Retailers have that much more time to fully engage consumers this holiday season. Although spending will increase this holiday season, retailers must be conscientious when it comes to identifying their best customers who are most likely to spend the most.

It appears that consumers look forward to spending early for their holiday shopping . This fact, combined with the Thanksgiving retail shopping period that includes Black Friday and Cyber Monday, means brands need to be prepared for this critical holiday shopping period around Thanksgiving.

3. The Strong Economy Will Help Retailers

Consumers are confident about the economy for several reasons. National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay cited some of these factors .

“Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence, we believe that this holiday season will continue to reflect the growth we’ve seen over the past year,” Shay noted.

Holiday sales in 2017 totaled $687.87 billion, a 5.3 percent increase over 2016 and the largest increase since the 5.2 percent year-over-year gain seen in 2010 after the end of the Great Recession.

“Last year’s strong results were thanks to growing wages, stronger employment, and higher confidence, complemented by anticipation of tax cuts that led consumers to spend more than expected,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “With this year’s forecast, we continue to see strong momentum from consumers as they do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy. The combination of increased job creation, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend.”

All of these strong macroeconomic factors have contributed to one of the best consumer discretionary spending environments in years .

Consumer confidence in the economy is a powerful thing during the holiday season, which places retailers in an ideal situation to enhance engagement and retention levels.

4. Retailers Can Make the Holiday Season a Memorable One

Retailers can take advantage of the favorable economy and positive consumer sentiment through customer insights data during the holiday season.

Preparation for the holiday season is imperative for retailers. One under-the-radar element of holiday preparation for retailers should be website performance.

Whether it is a brick-and-mortar store or an ecommerce site, online presence marks the essence of every business strategy todayChecking website performance, load time, application performance testing, application load test, and much more are quickly becoming inevitable for commercial success.

All these factors play a vital role, especially during the high-pressure holiday season when every small or big portal is trying to grab maximum profits from the market.

During the holiday season retailers need to ensure that store associates are well versed and excited about the loyalty programs they will be promoting.

5. Customer Engagement Shouldn’t End with the 2018 Holiday Shopping Season

The holiday season is a great time to engage and create new customers, but what happens after that? One of the strategies a retailer can use to achieve this goal is a loyalty program.

There are thousands of loyalty programs out there, but consumers are drawn to ones that are simple and offer real value.

A new study shows  that 40 percent of customers who refrain from signing up for loyalty programs do so because the value of being a loyalty member is not worth the time, money, or effort of signing up. And for those who sign up, 76 percent do so to qualify for special promotions.

Retailers should take note of these statistics and evaluate special offers for loyalty members to ensure that their promotions are competitive and offer value.

Effectively leveraging a loyalty program during the holiday season can go a long way toward retaining customers in the long run. That customer engagement during the holiday season should continue in the New Year to bolster your consumer relationships.

Loyalty program signup is important throughout the year, but it takes on added importance and relevance during the holiday season.

Happy Holiday Shopping Season

If brands listen to their customers, identify their pain points, and meet their expectations, they can build solid two-way relationships that extend well beyond the holiday season.

Given the fact that consumers are upbeat about spending in a strong and vibrant economy, retailers can and should take advantage of the early Thanksgiving and make this holiday season a memorable one through increased customer engagement, more promotions around value-driven loyalty programs, and ensuring that store associates are proficient in your key brand messaging.

Creating memorable moments is a huge part of the holiday season.

Focus on your customers and enjoy a Happy Holiday Shopping Season!

11:06:55 AM EDT By 

U.S. retailer group sees 2018 holiday sales up more than 4 percent

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. holiday sales in 2018 will increase 4.3 percent to 4.8 percent boosted by a strong economy but will be slower than a year ago when consumer spending surged to a 12-year high, according to a forecast from a leading retail industry group.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) said holiday sales growth will be higher than an average increase of 3.9 percent over the past five years but slower than the 5.3 percent growth witnessed a year earlier when consumer spending grew the most since 2005 and was boosted by tax cuts.

“Last year’s strong results were thanks to growing wages, stronger employment and higher confidence, complemented by anticipation of tax cuts that led consumers to spend more than expected,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“With this year’s forecast, we continue to see strong momentum from consumers as they do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy,” he said.

The combination of more jobs, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in net worth all provide the impetus to spend, he added.

The retail trade group said it expects sales for the last two months of the year between $717.45 billion and $720.89 billion, excluding autos, gasoline and dining out. Holiday sales in 2017 were $687.87 billion.

NRF’s forecast is one of the most closely watched benchmarks ahead of the holiday season, when retailers like Amazon.com Inc, Walmart Stores Inc and Target Corp generate an outsized portion of their profits and sales.

The last two months of the year can account for 20 percent to 40 percent of annual sales for many retailers.

The NRF forecast follows other estimates from companies like AlixPartners, which says sales will grow in between 3.1 percent and 4.1 percent as “2017 will be a tough year to follow.” Forecasts from companies like Deloitte and PwC expect holiday retail sales to grow around 5 percent.

NRF also said Wednesday that it expects seasonal employment by retailers to reach between 585,000 and 650,000 jobs, up from 582,500 in 2017.

Federal Reserve approves its third rate hike of the year

The move indicates that the nation’s central bank may soon be able to take a back seat for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis and allow the economy to steer itself.

Wednesday’s widely expected rate hike of one-quarter of a percentage point comes after the Federal Open Market Committee’s scheduled two-day policy meeting, and is a response to a robust economic landscape that includes low unemployment, an uptick in wage growth, and sweeping corporate tax reform.

“The near-term outlook appears to be steady as she goes,” said Jack Kleinhenz of the National Retail Federation. “Rarely are so many economic gauges of the U.S. economy so strong.”

The new rate also signals that the White House’s tit-for-tat global trade actions have so far had a muted impact on the nation’s nine-year economic growth streak.

The Fed kept rates artificially low for seven years after the Great Recession, zeroing out the rate in December 2008 and only raising it again in December 2015, under Janet Yellen’s chairmanship. Since then, Yellen raised the benchmark rate by one-quarter of a percentage point just four more times. After taking over from Yellen in February this year, Trump-appointed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome “Jay” Powell has raised rates three consecutive times.

Chairman Powell has made note of the Fed’s precarious position as the economy heats up, saying last month that the Fed currently faces two main risks — either “moving too fast and needlessly shortening the expansion” or “moving too slowly and risking a destabilizing overheating.”

But Trump slammed Chairman Powell earlier this year, saying he was “not happy” about this year’s series of rate hikes.

“I don’t necessarily agree with it,” Trump told CNBC in July. “I’m not thrilled, because every time we go up, they want to raise rates again. But at the same time, I’m letting them do what they feel is best.”

Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was the first for economics professor Richard Clarida, who was confirmed earlier this month for a four-year term as Federal Reserve vice chairman. The board of governors has three remaining vacancies.

NBCNEWS

KTAL

The price of rising employment: Slow wage growth, trade risks

If wage growth doesn’t kick into high gear, increasing inflation could swallow even the minimal improvement in purchasing power workers have attained.

A slowing rate of job growth in July nonetheless managed to pull some workers off the sidelines, but wage growth mired at 2.7 percent began to elicit concerns that wages will fail to keep up with inflation as the economy picks up steam.

At 157,000, the number of jobs created last month fell short of expectations, but upward revisions of the previous two months and a broad base of new jobs across industries left economists relatively sanguine about the miss.

“I don’t think you want things to be ‘great’ because great means the Fed worries about inflation and the economy moving ahead too quickly,” said Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “The expansion killer is the Fed making a mistake, moving too fast. We don’t want to see great right now. We just want to see good.”
Upward revisions to May and June added a combined total of 59,000 jobs added, bringing the monthly average to 224,000 over the past three months.  “In the past, summer months tend to show large employment fluctuations due to the timing of seasonal hiring,” National Retail Federation chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a statement. The retail sector eked out a small gain of 7,000 despite a loss of 32,000 jobs, largely due to the closure of the Toys R Us chain.

 

The labor market sectors with the most notable growth in July were professional and business services, which added 51,000 jobs; and manufacturing and healthcare/social assistance, which added 37,000 and 34,000 jobs, respectively.

“U.S. manufacturing is flexing some muscle right now,” said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, but noted these and other labor market gains could be threatened by President Donald Trump’s protectionist sentiments. “Obviously, there are huge risks associated with the trade dispute,” he said.

If wage growth doesn’t kick into high gear, increasing inflation could swallow even the minimal improvement in purchasing power workers have attained in the recovery so far.

“I don’t think we’ve seen the brunt of the tariffs yet,” said Arne Kalleberg, professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Manufacturing and agriculture-related jobs would be especially at risk if China or the European Union enact retaliatory sanctions, he said.

Derailing the current labor market expansion could hurt the most at-risk members of the workforce the most and slow mediocre wage growth even further, even as rising inflation erodes the value of Americans’ pay.

“We have to think about the fact that inflation’s running at a 2 percent rate,” Hamrick said. “We’re on this rising interest rate trajectory.” If wage growth doesn’t kick into high gear, increasing inflation could swallow even the minimal improvement in purchasing power workers have attained in the recovery so far.

Economists say demographics are one factor behind wage growth that trails what most experts consider the low end of healthy wage growth by nearly a full percentage point. As baby boomers leave the workforce, the younger and generally less-experienced workers taking their place don’t earn as much.

A yawning skills gap is another. Economists say a robust economy is drawing people back into the workforce, but this could be one of the factors holding down wage growth. “What businesses are having to do is they can’t find people with skills, so they have to hire them at unskilled wages and then train them,” said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America.

The data bears this out: Compared to the topline unemployment rate of 3.9 percent, the broader U-6 measure of unemployment fell three-tenths of a percentage point to 7.5 percent in July, a percentage point lower than it was a year ago.

“Of course, the people hired without skills have lower productivity,” North added. The upshot is that unskilled workers aren’t being paid as much, which economists theorize could be holding down wage gains.

With fewer skills and lower productivity, these would be the workers most likely to lose out if companies have to start cutting jobs in response to a trade war-initiated slowdown. “I always worry about the quality of these jobs,” Kalleberg said. “There’s very little bargaining power on the part of workers.“

by Martha C. White / 

NBC News

Retail sales gain is a sign tax reform may be working

Retail winners and losers in 2018

Consumers are increasing their spending, which may be a plus for the stock market during a period of volatility. U.S. retail sales rose in March more than forecast after three straight monthly declines, with consumers buying more big-ticket items. This evidence of healthy sentiment could drive markets higher in the second quarter.

Retail sales increased 0.6% in March after a 0.1% drop in February, the Commerce Department reported on Monday. The January retail data was revised down to show that sales declined by 0.2%, steeper than the previously reported 0.1% dip.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that retail sales would rise by 0.4% in March. Year-over-year, retail sales increased 4.5%.

There have been hopes that with many Americans seeing their paychecks increase because of tax cut savings, consumer spending would climb. Such an increase, in turn, would be good for the economy overall, with more than two-thirds of U.S. economic growth attributed to consumer spending.

“These are strong numbers, no doubt surging from the shot in the arm tax reform provided,” said Mike Loewengart, vice president of investment strategy at E*Trade. “Consumers are seeing more in their paycheck, and it appears they’ve gone shopping—certainly good news for investors.”

Stock markets have gone through a volatile period and are seeking direction.

“With most earnings reports arriving in the next few weeks, this is a pivotal time for a market that is in search of something positive to latch on to,” Loewengart added. “It appears, at least at the moment, strong economic fundamentals just simply aren’t enough to fire the bull rally back up.”

National Retail Federaton Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz called the retail sales report a “healthy spending report” despite market volatility, unseasonable weather and uncertain economic policies. “Consumers continue to show resiliency in spending, and these numbers reflect how the economy is performing with a strong job market, gains in wages, improvements in confidence, rising home value and judicious use of credit,” he said.

By RetailFOXBusiness

NRF: March Retail Sales Climb 5%, Three-Month Average Jumps 4.8%

The March results build on the higher sales seen in February, which was up 0.2% over January and 4.3% year-over-year. These numbers exclude sales of automobiles and at gasoline stations and restaurants.

The NRF numbers are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which said overall March retail sales — including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants — were up a seasonally adjusted 0.6% from February, and up 4.5% year-over-year.

“This is a healthy spending report despite market volatility, unseasonable weather and uncertain economic policies,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz in a statement. “Consumers continue to show resiliency in spending, and these numbers reflect how the economy is performing with a strong job market, gains in wages, improvements in confidence, rising home values and judicious use of credit. The biggest risk to spending is in market fluctuations that could affect confidence, but we expect these basic improvements in economic fundamentals to continue.”

All sectors except sporting goods saw sales improvements in March on a year-by-year basis. Sporting goods stores saw sales declines of 0.9%.

  • Online and other non-store sales: up 7.6%;
  • General merchandise: up 6.3%;
  • Clothing and clothing accessories: up 6.1%;
  • Grocery and beverage: up 5.9%;
  • Furniture and home furnishings: up 4.1%;
  • Building materials and garden supplies: up 3.8%;
  • Electronics and appliances: up 1.6%; and
  • Health and personal care: up 0.4%.

Retail sales are up in April

Retail sales data issued today by the United States Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF) showed modest sequential gains and varying annual gains.

Commerce reported that April retail sales were up 0.3% annually at $497.6 billion and 0.8% ahead of March’s $496.1 billion. It also noted that total retail sales from February through April were up 4.6% annually.

April also represents the second straight month of retail sales gains, as March snapped a three-month stretch of declines from December through February.

Commerce reported that retail trade sales were up 0.4% in April over March and 4.8% annually. Non-store sales, which include e-commerce, saw a 9.6% annual gain. Furniture and home furniture sales were up 6.1% annually, and electronics ad appliance store sales were up 1.7%.

The NRF reported that April retail sales increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to March and were up 2.8% annually. NRF’s data excludes retail sales from automobiles, gasoline stations, and restaurants.

“Retail sales growth remains solid and on track as households benefit from tax cuts even though they have faced unseasonable weather and bumpy financial markets,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “The tax cuts and higher savings levels should help consumers afford the recent surge in gasoline prices. And a solid job market, recent wage gains and elevated confidence translate into ongoing spending support.”

NRF’s three-month moving average through April saw a 4.1% annual increase, which matches up with the organization’s estimate of 2018 retail sales rising between 3.8%-4.4% annually.

Various retail sectors saw solid performances in April based on NRF data, including:
● Online and other non-store sales were up 12.2 percent year-over-year and up 0.6 percent over March seasonally adjusted
● Furniture and home furnishings stores were up 5.8 percent year-over-year and up 0.8 percent from March seasonally adjusted
● Building materials and garden supply stores were up 5.6 percent year-over-year and up 0.4 percent from March seasonally adjusted
● Electronics and appliance stores were up 2.2 percent year-over-year but down 0.1 percent from March seasonally adjusted

April retail sales jump 0.4% as e-commerce climbs 9.6% from last year

Dive Brief:

  • Retail sales in April (excluding sales from auto dealers, gas stations, building materials and food services) rose 0.4% from March 2018, according to the latest monthly report from the U.S. Commerce Department’s census bureau. March sales were revised upward to a 0.8% rise, from the previously reported 0.6%.
  • Nine of the 13 major retail categories posted positive sales results in April compared with March, according to retail think tank Coresight Research’s breakdown of the report. Clothing and accessories rose 1.4%, furniture sales rose 0.8% and e-commerce rose 0.6%. But health and personal care sales fell 0.4%, and electronics and appliance sales fell 0.1%, the Census Bureau said.
  • E-commerce sales in the period rose 9.6% from last year, while overall retail sales excluding auto rose 4.8% year over year, according to the government’s report.

Dive Insight:

April marked another month of robust sales for retailers, despite a cold spring in many parts of the country, thanks to an overall healthy economy.

“Spending was sluggish at the start of 2018, but April marked the second consecutive month of growth,” according to a report from Coresight CEO Deborah Weinswig. “More broadly, consumer spending has been lifted by a falling unemployment rate, which in April was a historically low 3.9%. Measures of consumer confidence have remained high in recent months, which economists attribute to the recent tax cuts, a healthy labor market and broader economic growth.”

And tax cuts could help mitigate the rise in gas prices this year, according to NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz.

“Retail sales growth remains solid and on track as households benefit from tax cuts even though they have faced unseasonable weather and bumpy financial markets,” Kleinhenz said in a statement emailed to Retail Dive. “And a solid job market, recent wage gains and elevated confidence translate into ongoing spending support.”

But it’s worth looking at just where shoppers are spending the most: As first quarter reports have come in for 39 retail chains tracked by Retail Metrics, retail earnings are up 15.8% year over year, with just four retailers accounting for all that reported growth. Drugstore chains CVS and Walgreens both turned in “sizeable” first quarter surprises that accounted for about 300 basis points of reported earnings growth, according to a Retail Metrics note emailed to Retail Dive. Costco was responsible for another 300 basis points of earnings growth and Home Depot, which reported a 20% year-over-year first quarter operating income boost this week, is responsible for 1,000 basis points.

Without Home Depot, CVS, Walgreens or Costco however, reported Q1 retail earnings fell 0.7%, according to Retail Metrics.

E-commerce continues to outpace in-store sales, according to two indices of U.S. retailers from ProShares, measuring year to date sales through market close on May 14. The Solactive-ProShares Bricks and Mortar Retail Store Index (which includes leading legacy retail companies) fell 3.08%, while the ProShares Online Retail Index (which tracks tracks U.S. and non-U.S. retailers primarily selling online or through other non-store channels with a market capitalization of at least $500 million, including Amazon) rose 19.26%.

Retail Sales Inch Up in April

The National Retail Federation said that retail sales in April showed a 2.8 percent year-over-year increase in the U.S retail market, excluding auto sales, gasoline stations and restaurants.

“Retail sales growth remains solid and on track as households benefit from tax cuts even though they have faced unseasonable weather and bumpy financial markets,” said Jack Kleinhenz, the chief economist for the National Retail Federation, based in Washington, D.C. “The tax cuts and higher savings levels should help consumers afford the recent surge in gasoline prices. And a solid job market, recent wage gains and elevated confidence translate into ongoing spending support.”

The NRF broke down April results for different retail categories. Results were mixed for apparel stores. Sales for clothing and clothing-accessory stores dipped 0.4 percent in a year-over-year basis. However, April apparel sales were up 1.4 percent compared to the previous month.

Online and other non-store sales were up 12.2 percent in a year-over-year comparison. Compared to the previous month, sales increased 0.6 percent for e-retailers.

Ken Perkins, president of the market-research group Retail Metrics, also posted a recent note saying business was good in April. He said that expectations for the month had been low because cold weather was predicted for much of the U.S. Wall Street analysts also forecast that many consumers may have been suffering from shopping fatigue. The nation’s retailers experienced a spike in business because Easter took place on April 1.

In Perkins’s research note, he discussed the April performance for L Brands, the parent company of Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works. Bath & Body Works reported a 6 percent same-store-sales gain during April. Victoria’s Secret posted a 2 percent decline.