By Jay Miller

Continuing its roller-coaster ride, Northeast Ohio lost 375 jobs in March, according to the latest Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report. The March loss was preceded by a February increase, which was preceded by a January loss and a December increase.

The longer, year-over-year gain, however, is positive, with Northeast Ohio employment up 3,316 jobs, a gain of 0.29%.

“The regional economy is expanding and is in better shape than many expected (given the) uncertainty caused by the volatile financial markets that disrupted economic activity earlier this year,” said economist Jack Kleinhenz, who compiles the ACE data, referring to stock market ups and downs that followed the price of oil.

Employment growth came entirely from the service sector, with employment in that sector growing by 6,397 jobs, a 0.7% increase. That was offset by a loss of 3,081, or 1.5%, in the smaller industrial sector.

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, explained the weakness in industrial sector employment in an April 1 speech to the New York Association for Business Economics after noting that the slowdown in the energy sector was affecting employment in northern Ohio and western Pennsylvania.

“Regional firms with international exposure, such as steel producers, also continue to struggle in the wake of dollar appreciation and lower commodity prices that reflect weak global demand,” she said.

“While manufacturers with ties to energy and steel production have faced challenges, the weakness in that segment has been offset by production increases at manufacturers supplying the construction industry and by the auto industry.”

The ACE Report surveys only Cuyahoga County and the six counties that surround it, while the Fed’s Cleveland-based Fourth District comprises Ohio, western Pennsylvania, eastern Kentucky and the northern panhandle of West Virginia.

Michael Teshome, an economist who covers the Midwest for PNC Financial Services Group, agrees with Mester but also sees a future of employment growth in other sectors.

“Layoffs in the steel industry will restrain employment growth in manufacturing,” he wrote. “Health care, finance and professional services will add to the area’s economic growth.”

PNC forecasts employment growth in Northeast Ohio at 1% for 2016 and 1.1% for 2017. Longer term, PNC’s economist sees opportunity for greater growth.

“Though still only in their early development stages, manufacturing hubs for the machinery of new energy technologies and transportation equipment hold great promise for those regions that can attract and cultivate them,” Teshome wrote.

“The (Northeast Ohio) region’s lower costs and availability of underutilized assets will be an important tool in attracting new industries and opportunities into the region in the years ahead.”

Month	Non-Farm	Small (1-49)	Mid-Sized (50+)	Goods-producing	Service Producing
September (Actual)	1,164,804	473,914	690,890	215,278	949,526
Oct (est.)	1,165,339	473,967	691,371	217,727	947,611
Nov (est.)	1,162,090	472,798	689,292	214,944	947,146
Dec (est.)	1,164,636	473,839	690,797	215,335	949,301
Jan (est.)	1,164,051	473,610	690,441	215,102	948,949
Feb (est.)	1,165,721	474,355	691,366	214,476	951,246
Mar (est.)	1,165,346	474,200	691,147	214,441	950,905
Recent Month’s Estimated Change
Feb ’16 to Mar ’16	(375)	(154.98)	(220)	(34)	(341)
Diff from Mar 2015	3,316	1,607	1,709	(3,082)	6,397
Trend
3-month	1,165,040	474,055	690,985	214,673	950,366
6-month	1,164,531	473,795	690,736	215,338	949,193