Housing

Dr. Jack Kleinhenz, Winner of Pulsenomics Crystal Ball Award 2017

Posted on by katiecmorgan

Dr. Jack Kleinhenz of Kleinhenz & Associates placed first for his 2-year, 3-year, and 4-year horizon projections ending in 2016 based on the Pulsenomics Home Price Expectation Survey.  He will receive the Crystal Ball Award from Pulsenomics for the accuracy of his projections.

Pulsenomics® is an independent economics research and consulting firm that delivers product strategy and marketing solutions for corporate and institutional clients. Their expertise is in the U.S. housing and capital markets, and in data analytics and exchange-traded financial products.

Pulsenomics also conducts primary research via scientific household surveys and expert survey panels, and develops authoritative indexes that provide unique insight concerning the economy. It was founded by Terry Loebs, and its Honorary Advisors are Chip Case and Robert Shiller.

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW: OCTOBER 2015

Posted on by Jack Kleinhenz

National Retail Federation

Consumers remain resilient economic force — as long as they continue to spend

Households continue to do their part to keep the economy growing despite global crosswinds and a stronger dollar that restrained economic activity this summer. Though restrained, consumer spending is strengthening and the drop in energy prices is freeing up cash in consumers’ wallets to spend on big ticket-items and other goods and services. This bodes well for the ever-important upcoming holiday season.

Retail sales have been softer than expected recently, perhaps impacted by increased volatility in financial markets. But the most recent rebound in consumer sentiment suggests consumers are feeling more optimistic about current conditions and have favorable expectations about the near term.

Housing has been a bright spot in the in the economy and continues to be a positive force. Solid job growth, improving consumer confidence and still-low home mortgage rates are all propelling the housing market. This is a good sign since newly purchased homes need to be outfitted with retail products.

Inflation was modestly stronger in September, but it has been difficult to pass on higher prices as consumers remain price sensitive. Most of inflation increases have come in the services sector.

More drama could come this winter if Congress does not move quickly to complete work on the federal budget and debt ceiling. Continued debate would fall in the middle of the holiday season. If the issue amplifies on Capitol Hill, we could see a shift in consumer spending intentions.

Download this month’s report, which includes the following highlights:

  • Retail sales and holiday sales forecast
  • Job growth
  • Consumer prices
  • Gross Domestic Product
  • Job openings
  • Housing market index
  • Personal income and spending

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW: KEEPING AN EYE ON CONSUMER ELECTRONICS SPENDING

Posted on by Jack Kleinhenz

While the fundamental forces of shopping behavior are economic — including income levels, credit, wealth, job prospects and confidence — there’s another force that has a tremendous impact on how, when, where and even why people shop: technology.

With well over 30 million smartphones and tablets in the country, it is easier than ever for consumers to find ways to connect with their favorite brands and service providers.

One of the barometers of consumer expectations around technology spending is produced monthly by the Consumer Electronics Association. The CEA Index of Consumer Technology Expectations is a forward-looking indicator derived from a monthly survey that provides users valuable information about the purchase of consumer electronics over the ensuing months.

With the 2015 holiday season just around the corner, I’m already assessing what the trends will be around spending on new iPhones, tablets and other electronics. My colleague Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the CEA, noted recent readings of their index indicate a steady pace of spending in the near future.

NRF’s holiday forecast comes in early October and like we do every season, we’ll be keeping a close eye on spending in this area.

This month’s full report includes these highlights:

Retail Sales

August retail sales, excluding autos, gas and restaurants, advanced 0.2 percent from July and are up 2.6 percent on a year-over-year basis.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped 6 points to 85.7 in September.

Consumer Prices

The August headline consumer price index decreased 0.1 percent following a 0.1 percent gain in July and a 0.3 percent increase in June.

Gross Domestic Product

The second estimate of second quarter GDP surged to 3.7 percent following the initial estimate of 2.3 percent.

Housing

The National Association of Home Builders Index of Builder Sentiment rose to 62 in September, gaining 1 point from the previous month.

Employment

Private sector payrolls increased by 140,000 in August. Overall employment(public and private sectors combined) increased by 173,000 in August.

Retail Jobs and Openings

Employment in August, excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, increased 6,700 to 12.87 million jobs seasonally adjusted, a gain of 202,000 from August 2014 employment.

Personal Income and Spending

Personal income increased 0.4 percent in July while personal spending increased 0.3 percent.

Leading Economic Index

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index increased by 0.1 percent in August and is 4.0 percent higher than August 2014.

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW: READY FOR A REBOUND

Posted on by Jack Kleinhenz

Until recently, we have either received mixed or disappointing economic data. However, the newfound strength in the U.S. labor market will serve as a key factor for optimism moving forward. With job growth averaging more than 200,000 a month and wage growth showing marked improvements, the U.S. economy is ripe for continued household spending.

Additionally, the rebound in retail sales in May serves as a positive indication of growth in Gross Domestic Product for the second-quarter. With consumer spending accounting for nearly 70 percent of economic growth, positive reports in our nation’s GDP will be a key determinant in the months ahead.

The economy struggled coming out of the gate in 2015 just like it did in 2014, and the economic outlook has not played out precisely as we had anticipated when we released our annual forecast earlier in the year. After a weak first quarter, the economy found its footing this spring and is expected to continue its rebound. Nonetheless, our forecast of 4.1 percent for the year will likely need to be updated to account for these changes.

This month’s full report includes these highlights:

Retail Sales

Consumer spending and retail sales rebounded in May signifying renewed momentum heading into the second half of the year.

Consumer Sentiment

June’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index climbed 3.9 points from May’s 90.7 to 94.6, with much of the gain due to consumers’ belief that current economic conditions have improved.

Consumer Prices

The March headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent between April and May, somewhat slower than expected.

Gross Domestic Product

Net exports hampered GDP growth in the first quarter. Much of the volatility in the trade deficit was due to the West Coast port slowdown, taking off nearly 2 percentage points from GDP growth.

Housing

The June NAHB housing market index jumped to a reading of 59 from 54 in May, a much stronger than expected score.

Employment

The labor market received a surprise in June as the Bureau of Labor and Statistics reported private sector job growth of 260,000.

Retail Jobs and Openings

Employment, excluding auto, gas and restaurant sales, increased 23,800 in May to 12.81 million jobs seasonally adjusted, a gain of 242,700 from May 2014.

Personal Income and Spending

April Personal Income rose 0.4 percent and Personal Consumption Expenditures was flat. On a year-over-year basis, personal income is up 4.1 percent while consumption is up 2.7 percent.

Leading Economic Indicators

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index increased 0.7 percent in May, matching April’s increase.

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW: CONSUMERS ARE IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT

Posted on by Jack Kleinhenz

When it comes to the U.S. economy, one can’t help but feel a sense of déjà vu. Similar to last year, unseasonably cold weather and lingering caution among budget-conscious consumers have dampened economic activity since the first of the year. However, as we head into the second quarter, I expect we’ll see that the consumer is actually more in the driver’s seat compared to this time last year. Lower energy costs, rising home equity, job and income gains and increased buying power from the stronger U.S. dollar will all continue to positively contribute to greater consumer spending ability — a key factor for further economic gains.

Other positive factors that will continue to influence improved growth in consumer spending include growth in real disposable income, which has grown 4 percent on a year-over-year basis ending in February — the fastest rate seen in two years — and stock market gains that are about 12 percent above this time last year. Additionally, housing price appreciation and decreased household debt burdens are at their lowest in at least 35 years, contributing to bigger gains in consumer confidence.

Economic expansion in the United States is expected to continue, but the burden of carrying the world economy on its shoulders could be an obstacle on the path toward stronger U.S. gains.

This month’s full report includes these highlights:

Retail Sales

Retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants) reversed course and increased 0.5 percent in March after dropping 0.4 percent in February.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index beat expectations in the first half of April, increasing to 95.9 from March’s average of 93.

Consumer Prices

The March headline Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent between March and February. This was the second positive reading in five months.

Gross Domestic Product

The third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP reflected no change to the 2.2 percent rate from the second estimate.

Housing

Single family starts rebounded by 4.4 percent to 618,000 units in March and homebuilding is off to a good start. Weather appeared to play a negative role earlier this year not only on starts but on completions.

Employment

Job growth slowed in March as private payrolls rose an anemic 129,000. Overall employment (public and private sectors combined) increased 126,000 in March.

Retail Jobs and Openings

Total retail employment across all industry segments increased 25,900 to 15.6 million in March. There were 463,000 job openings in the retail industry on the last business day of February.

Personal Income and Spending

Personal income rose by 0.4 percent in February while personal consumption inched up only 0.1 percent.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

The economy was growing even slower last month according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index which recorded activity dropped to -0.42 in March from -0.18 in February.

Download the full report (PDF)

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW: LINGERING WINTER CHILLS ECONOMY, STRONGER SPRING EXPECTED

Posted on by Jack Kleinhenz

he pattern of adverse cold weather and snowfall in a large swath of the United States looks very similar to last year. The weather is again at play and could well account for downward revisions to estimates for economic growth.

However, this year’s economic factors are substantially different and provide a stronger foundation for consumer spending in the months ahead. Job growth and openings have risen, energy prices have declined along with inflation, and wages and salaries are stronger. First quarter activity is soft, but the economy remains on firm tracks and is expected to pick up in the coming months.

This month’s full report includes these highlights:

Retail Sales

The outlook remains positive as households are benefiting from low gas prices, job gains and rising home prices.

Consumer Sentiment

Households cited weaker finances compared with last year. Nevertheless looking forward, the tightening of the job market should bring about stronger wage growth in the months ahead.

Consumer Prices

Core inflation is expected to be driven by the push and pull of import prices related to the stronger U.S. dollar along with wage and salary gains as slack in the labor market is reduced.

Gross Domestic Product

It is not clear what has caused the economy to slow but a number of factors could be at play. The composition of GDP, however, with the current revisions indicates a more positive outlook.

Housing

February home sales are the strongest since February 2008 and are well above expectations. The pace of January and February new home sales is in sharp contrast to the tepid sales registered in 2013 and 2014.

Employment

February’s payroll growth remained on solid footing with a gain of 288,000 jobs. Overall employment — public and private sectors combined — increased 295,000 in February.

Retail Jobs and Openings

The churn or turnover in the job market is another good sign of a strengthening job market as workers are becoming confident about job prospects.

Personal Income and Spending

The wage and salary component of income rose 0.6 percent after rising 0.1 percent in December. Wage growth is stronger, registering at nearly a 4.6 percent year-over-year rate for the same month a year earlier.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Further reduction in unemployment is needed to push inflation toward the Federal Reserve’s targeted levels.

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW: FEBRUARY 2015

Posted on by Jack Kleinhenz

In the February 2015 Monthly Economic Review, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz provides in-depth analysis on the latest government economic indicators, such as wages and income change, retail sales and consumer sentiment. Additionally, the report looks at retail employment. Employment, according to NRF, which excludes automobiles, gas stations and restaurants, increased 34,800 in January to 2.76 million jobs seasonally adjusted, a gain of 215,600 from the same month last year. Total retail employment across all industry segments increased 45,900 to 15.6 million in January.

NRF’s Monthly Economic Review is a report for NRF and its communities’ members that includes the latest information on industry sales, providing a thorough overview of the current retail and economic climate.

Prepared by NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, the report utilizes recent economic data to analyze the impact of key indicators such as energy costs and the housing market on retail sales growth.

MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW: SEPTEMBER 2014

Posted on by Jack Kleinhenz

National Retail Federation

In this month’s post, NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz reviews a new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, The Shifting Source of New Business Establishments and New Jobs, and explains why retail is a popular sector to explore when examining the trend toward multi-unit establishments.

NRF’s Monthly Economic Review is a report for NRF and its communities’ members that includes the latest information on industry sales, providing a thorough overview of the current retail and economic climate.

Prepared by NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, the report utilizes recent economic data to analyze the impact of key indicators such as energy costs and the housing market on retail sales growth.