For the majority of U.S. households, residential real estate is the single-largest asset on the balance sheet. Prevailing home equity levels–and expected home value changes–can have out-sized influence on consumer spending and behavior (i.e., wealth effects). As an asset class, U.S. housing has an aggregate value of almost $30 trillion. For these and other reasons, the home value expectations of experts bear watching, and forecasters with the most outstanding performance deserve recognition.
In every year since 2010, Pulsenomics has recognized the most accurate and reliable forecasters of U.S. home values with a Crystal Ball Award. More than 100 experts who participate on our panel vie for the honor in a variety of award categories by predicting the future path of the Zillow Home Value Index.
This year, Jack Kleinhenz (pictured), who heads Kleinhenz & Associates and also serves as chief economist of The National Retail Federation, earned first-place in two prize categories, including one that is arguably the most challenging: the five-year horizon. Jack won this prize in an especially impressive fashion. The actual cumulative change in U.S. home prices for the five-year period ended Dec. 2017 was 32.9%; back in 2013, Jack predicted prices would increase 32.8% over that period. That’s not a typo. Drop the mic, Jack!
Pulsenomics’ Top Ten panelist rankings include details of forecast accuracy in each of 11 categories. Please join me in congratulating all of our 2017 honorees!