Northeast Ohio eked out a small employment gain in November, according to the latest Ahola Crain’s Employment (ACE) Report.
Seasonally adjusted employment in November for the seven-county area of Cleveland and Akron measured by the report was 1,172,672, a gain of just 286 jobs from 1,172,386 in October.
The change is small, but Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who created the ACE Report model noted it was unusual in this respect: The region lost 152 service jobs from October to November, but it added 438 jobs in goods-producing fields.
“The offset is a turnaround from recent trends where the growth in service jobs offset losses in manufacturing,” Kleinhenz wrote in an analysis of the November ACE Report data.
The region remains in positive jobs territory from a year ago. Kleinhenz said November employment in Northeast Ohio was up by 4,570 jobs from the like month of 2015.
November’s jobs figure also is above the ACE Report’s seasonally adjusted three- and six-month averages, which “suggests economic activity and job growth has picked up some momentum from the slower pace of job growth the region experienced in the second quarter,” according to Kleinhenz.
Underlying November’s ACE Report figures are some positive regional and national trends.
For instance, Kleinhenz wrote in his analysis that unemployment claims for the region “decreased by 22% over the same month a year ago. Coincidental measures for Ohio are up 2.2%, and construction put in place and retail sales show gains in the last three months.”
National indicators show an economy that is picking up the pace.
U.S. Gross Domestic Product was revised higher to 3.2% for the third quarter, which Kleinhenz wrote is a “significant number relative to the average 2.2% growth we have seen in this expansion.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index in November posted a reading of 53.2, which ties the fastest pace of this manufacturing sector indicator over the past 18 months, according to Kleinhenz. (A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding.)
He also noted that the Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index, a broader measure of the health of the labor market than provided by any single report, “indicates that the labor market is continuing its path of improvement.”
The Fed’s labor index increased by 1.5 points in November, about the same level of improvement as in October.
“All in all, these national trends should be a good indicator of what to expect at the state and regional levels,” Kleinhenz concluded.
Seaonally adjusted data
| Month | Non-Farm | Small (1-49) | Mid-Sized (50+) | Goods-producing | Service Producing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2016 (act) | 1,167,272 | 475,237 | 692,035 | 211,159 | 956,113 |
| July (est) | 1,175,087 | 478,079 | 697,008 | 217,449 | 957,638 |
| Aug (est) | 1,171,162 | 476,645 | 694,518 | 214,389 | 956,773 |
| Sept (est) | 1,169,567 | 476,086 | 693,480 | 212,792 | 956,775 |
| Oct (est) | 1,172,386 | 477,203 | 695,183 | 213,748 | 958,638 |
| Nov (est) | 1,172,672 | 477,293 | 695,380 | 214,186 | 958,486 |
| Recent Month’s Estimated Change | |||||
| Oct ’16 to Nov ’16 | 286 | 89.50 | 197 | 438 | (152) |
| Diff from Nov 2015 | 4,570 | 2,016 | 2,554 | (1,403) | 5,973 |
| Trend | |||||
| 3-month | 1,171,542 | 476,861 | 694,681 | 213,575 | 957,966 |
| 6-month | 1,171,358 | 476,757 | 694,601 | 213,954 | 957,404 |