Although the uptick shouldn’t be seen as part of a long-term trend, the increase of an estimated 1,250 jobs in the goods-producing sector of the Northeast Ohio economy in October largely offset a decline in service-sector payrolls for the month, resulting in a net regional loss of 57 jobs from September, according to the latest Crain’s Employment Report (CER).
That’s a barely measurable percentage of the total October payrolls, which were 1,168,796 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Meanwhile, service-providing firms appear to have decreased payrolls by 1,306 during October. Importantly, though, Jack Kleinhenz, the Cleveland Heights economist who developed the CER model, reports that the service sector is showing a gain of 972 jobs over the level in October 2016.
Overall, estimated October payrolls were down 5,255 from a year ago, a 0.4% loss. The larger service sector employed an estimated 963,241 people in October; the goods-producing sector had 205,555 workers on payrolls.
“The recent gain in the manufacturing sector is being helped by strong foreign demand and a softer dollar,” Kleinhenz said. “The global economy has shifted into higher gear, and foreign demand for U.S. goods has accelerated, reaching their highest level since December 2014.”
Kleinhenz noted that new factory orders were up 1.4% in September, the latest month available, and that new orders for manufactured goods jumped nearly 7% since September 2016, “a healthy pickup that is consistent with recent business optimism.”
The one-month increase in jobs in the goods-producing sector — largely comprising the manufacturing and construction industries — comes on the heels of a month-to-month loss of 3,544 between August and September. In addition, the sector has lost about 6,228 jobs since October 2016, according to CER data.
The year-over-year loss is part of an expected long-term decline in manufacturing jobs, according to a recent report from Team Northeast Ohio.
The business development nonprofit forecasts that the number of jobs in the manufacturing sector in the 18-county region of Northeast Ohio it surveys will decline from 265,437 in 2017 to 236,179 by 2027, a drop of 11%.
The flat employment seen in the seven-county region compares unfavorably to a statewide survey taken by ADP LLC. ADP’s report estimates that Ohio added 8,280 jobs in October. ADP is a national business outsourcing firm that surveys 406,000 U.S. companies monthly and breaks down the data to the state level for its report.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
|Month||Non-Farm||Small (1-49)||Mid-Sized (50+)||Goods-producing||Service Producing|
|March 2017 Actual||1,176,199||478,968||697,231||211,385||964,814|
|Recent Month’s Estimated Change|
|Sept ’17 to Oct ’17||(57)||(110.91)||54||1,250||(1,306)|
|Diff from Oct 2016||(5,255)||(1,772)||(3,484)||(6,228)||972|