Retail Pundits Reveal Key Spending Themes This Holiday 2018 Shopping Season

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A lot of people will shop for the holidays! And they’ll buy online! And they will look at their phones a lot, too!

Duh.

It’s that time of year again, folks, when we retail reporter types can sometimes spew breathless pronouncements on the sometimes not-so-revelatory predictions pundits make on the make-or-break holiday selling season, when merchants generate a disproportionate chunk of their annual sales.

Here’s some predictions worth noting. Let the games begin.

Feeling Financially Flush, Consumers Will Spend More Than They Have In Five Years

The National Retail Federation expects holiday retail sales in November and December — excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants — to rise between 4.3% and 4.8% over 2017, for a total of  $720.89 billion. The forecast compares with an average annual increase of 3.9% over the past five years.

“The combination of increased job creation, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in [consumers’] net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend,” the NRF’s chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said, in a statement.

Online retail will be the most popular shopping destination, with 60% of consumers planning e-commerce gifting this holiday season, according to a Deloitte survey.

An estimated 57% of holiday dollars will be spent online, eclipsing in-store purchasing, which is forecasted to account for 36% of consumer spending.

More than 70% of shoppers surveyed noted free shipping, while two-thirds cited time savings and home delivery, as the key reasons they’ll buy online this holiday, the survey found.

Of the nearly 50% of consumers who plan to use their smartphones to shop this holiday, 67% plan to use mobile to make a purchase, up from 57% last year.

Mass merchants are the second most popular venue for holiday shoppers (52%, up from 44% in 2017). Traditional department stores and off-price retailers round out the top-four shopping destinations.

Fewer Baubles And Blouses, More Brunches And Broadway Shows

Over the last five years, U.S. consumers have diverted more of their holiday budgets to experiences such as home entertaining and socializing away from home, which now represent 40%, or $611, of  survey respondents’ planned holiday budgets, the Deloitte study found.

While physical gift purchases, from clothes to household appliances, still dominate holiday purchases, they’re down trending. The number of shoppers who plan to buy a product has dropped 11% from 2017, according to Accenture. By contrast, shoppers planning to buy an experience or service-geared gift, from a meal out and a concert ticket to a cleaning service, rose 5%.

Millennials Will Be The Biggest Spenders, Practicing Conscious Consumption

An estimated 49% of younger Millennials plan to spend more this holiday than in 2017, while only 13% of their Baby Boomer counterparts expect to spend more than they did a year.

And Generation Y’s shopping venues will reflect their belief system. For example, 54% of younger Millennials said retailers have a duty to address broader social and political issues, such as diversity, be it gender, ethnic or disability inclusion, and they will reward merchants that do just that: 51% of younger Millennials surveyed are more likely to shop at a retailer that demonstrates awareness of these issues, the Accenture study found. “Our research suggests that younger Millennials are more likely to choose one brand over another if that brand demonstrates inclusion and diversity in terms of its promotions and offers, their in-store experience, their product range, and their environmental awareness,” said Jill Standish, senior managing director and head of Accenture’s retail practice, in a statement.

I’ve been a business journalist specializing in the retail industry for over a decade, covering consumer news, company profiles and industry analysis pieces, as well as the intersection of business news and shopping, fashion and social trends.

I was the retail and con…

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Retail

5 Things Retailers Need to Consider Heading Into the 2018 Holiday Shopping Season

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For most retailers, the 2018 holiday shopping season will present their biggest opportunity of the year to engage with customers. It will also represent the bulk of their annual sales.

As a result, this time of year is crucial for retailers to achieve success. With that in mind, current conditions make this holiday shopping season look positive for retailers.

1. Consumers Are Upbeat About Spending 

From what we’ve seen, customers are excited about shopping this year.

Brick-and-mortar sales will grow 1.4 percent and online growth is expected to reach 14 percent, according to Forrester Analytics: Online Holiday Retail Sales Forecast, 2018 (U.S.). Various studies also show that the average U.S. consumer will spend more during the upcoming holiday season, jumping from $1,226 per consumer to $1,536.

Deloitte’s annual holiday economic forecast looks great for retailers as well. Consumers seem confident about the economy, their household financial situations, and their spending plans for the upcoming holiday season.

Deloitte’s consumer survey shows online spending continues to grow and is expected to account for 57 percent of all purchases. Also, Deloitte’s research notes that shoppers are enthusiastic about the holiday season and remain price- and value-focused.

Based on the report, retailers are in a good spot to influence where consumers shop this year as many shoppers are entering the season undecided.

2. Thanksgiving is Coming Early

Consumers are doing their holiday shopping earlier based on a study by Bazaarvoice. An early Thanksgiving helps spread the holiday shopping theme to consumers.

Thanksgiving is as early as it can be this year (Nov. 22) which could prove helpful to retailers. Sixty percent of consumers say they begin their holiday shopping before Thanksgiving . This is particularly important this year because there will be 33 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Retailers have that much more time to fully engage consumers this holiday season. Although spending will increase this holiday season, retailers must be conscientious when it comes to identifying their best customers who are most likely to spend the most.

It appears that consumers look forward to spending early for their holiday shopping . This fact, combined with the Thanksgiving retail shopping period that includes Black Friday and Cyber Monday, means brands need to be prepared for this critical holiday shopping period around Thanksgiving.

3. The Strong Economy Will Help Retailers

Consumers are confident about the economy for several reasons. National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay cited some of these factors .

“Thanks to a healthy economy and strong consumer confidence, we believe that this holiday season will continue to reflect the growth we’ve seen over the past year,” Shay noted.

Holiday sales in 2017 totaled $687.87 billion, a 5.3 percent increase over 2016 and the largest increase since the 5.2 percent year-over-year gain seen in 2010 after the end of the Great Recession.

“Last year’s strong results were thanks to growing wages, stronger employment, and higher confidence, complemented by anticipation of tax cuts that led consumers to spend more than expected,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “With this year’s forecast, we continue to see strong momentum from consumers as they do the heavy lifting in supporting our economy. The combination of increased job creation, improved wages, tamed inflation and an increase in net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend.”

All of these strong macroeconomic factors have contributed to one of the best consumer discretionary spending environments in years .

Consumer confidence in the economy is a powerful thing during the holiday season, which places retailers in an ideal situation to enhance engagement and retention levels.

4. Retailers Can Make the Holiday Season a Memorable One

Retailers can take advantage of the favorable economy and positive consumer sentiment through customer insights data during the holiday season.

Preparation for the holiday season is imperative for retailers. One under-the-radar element of holiday preparation for retailers should be website performance.

Whether it is a brick-and-mortar store or an ecommerce site, online presence marks the essence of every business strategy todayChecking website performance, load time, application performance testing, application load test, and much more are quickly becoming inevitable for commercial success.

All these factors play a vital role, especially during the high-pressure holiday season when every small or big portal is trying to grab maximum profits from the market.

During the holiday season retailers need to ensure that store associates are well versed and excited about the loyalty programs they will be promoting.

5. Customer Engagement Shouldn’t End with the 2018 Holiday Shopping Season

The holiday season is a great time to engage and create new customers, but what happens after that? One of the strategies a retailer can use to achieve this goal is a loyalty program.

There are thousands of loyalty programs out there, but consumers are drawn to ones that are simple and offer real value.

A new study shows  that 40 percent of customers who refrain from signing up for loyalty programs do so because the value of being a loyalty member is not worth the time, money, or effort of signing up. And for those who sign up, 76 percent do so to qualify for special promotions.

Retailers should take note of these statistics and evaluate special offers for loyalty members to ensure that their promotions are competitive and offer value.

Effectively leveraging a loyalty program during the holiday season can go a long way toward retaining customers in the long run. That customer engagement during the holiday season should continue in the New Year to bolster your consumer relationships.

Loyalty program signup is important throughout the year, but it takes on added importance and relevance during the holiday season.

Happy Holiday Shopping Season

If brands listen to their customers, identify their pain points, and meet their expectations, they can build solid two-way relationships that extend well beyond the holiday season.

Given the fact that consumers are upbeat about spending in a strong and vibrant economy, retailers can and should take advantage of the early Thanksgiving and make this holiday season a memorable one through increased customer engagement, more promotions around value-driven loyalty programs, and ensuring that store associates are proficient in your key brand messaging.

Creating memorable moments is a huge part of the holiday season.

Focus on your customers and enjoy a Happy Holiday Shopping Season!

11:06:55 AM EDT By 

Kusama “Infinity Mirrors” and FRONT International helped art museum break attendance, membership records

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Attendance boosted by the popular Yayoi Kusama “Infinity Mirrors” exhibition and the FRONT International: Cleveland Triennial for Contemporary Art this year helped the Cleveland Museum of Art break a 26-year record for the number of visitors attracted in any single summer.

Between July 1 and September 30, the museum said it attracted 305,692 visitors, the largest summer total in the institution’s 102-year history, and the largest since the same period in 1992, when the exhibition “Egypt’s Dazzling Sun: Amenhotep III,” helped the museum pull in 290,000 visitors.

Visitors this summer came from all 50 states and 23 foreign countries, generating $6.9 million in museum revenues, including $2.3 million in new memberships, the museum announced Thursday.

“We were really thrilled to see so many people come from so far away as well as close to home to celebrate the summer with us,” said Elizabeth Bolander, director of audience insights and services at the museum, who described the new information in an interview Wednesday.

The Amenhotep exhibition, organized to celebrate the museum’s 75thanniversary, drew 186,139 visitors, far more than the 120,000 attendees for the Kusama show, which surveyed the artist’s 65-year career.

The museum had to limit the number of attendees for “Infinity Mirrors,” which involved circulating small numbers of viewers in and out of specially constructed mirror rooms in 30-second shifts.

But with FRONT and other exhibitions and a full calendar of events and programs, the museum cruised past its 1992 summer attendance record.

The museum reported that it topped 30,000 memberships this summer for the first time in its history, exceeding the total of 29,491 membership households reached on June 30, 2016, the middle of the museum’s centennial year.

Shows during that period included “Painting the Modern Garden: Monet to Matisse,” and “Pharaoh: King of Ancient Egypt.”

The museum said it created 120 temporary jobs to support the Kusama exhibition, and recruited 100 volunteers.

Data crunched by Cleveland economist Jack Kleinhenz show that the Kusama exhibition contributed $5.5 million in economic impact in Cuyahoga County.

The figure includes $3.2 million in direct spending by visitors from outside Cuyahoga County, plus additional sums calculated for the ripple of indirect and induced spending triggered by the new dollars flowing into the local economy. The increased spending created 58 new jobs in the county, according to the analysis.

Kleinhenz said the data were calculated from 732 visitor surveys, which represented a 33 percent response rate among those polled by the institution.

Figures extrapolated from the survey indicate that 44,522 visitors came to see the Kusama show from outside Cuyahoga County.

“It goes beyond pure economics,” Kleinhenz said of the museum’s impact on Cleveland and Northeast Ohio. “It’s such a unique brand, like the Cleveland Orchestra, the Cleveland Browns and the Cleveland Clinic.”

Bolander said the summer of 2018 helped the museum understand how its recently expanded and renovated complex could accommodate a million visitors a year – a major goal of a new strategic plan unveiled in 2017.

Attendance has averaged 630,000 in recent years. Attendance this summer – if annualized – would nearly double that number.

“It was actually very exciting this summer,” Bolander said. “We were able to test if, you will, what it meant to be at that level of attendance for a sustained period.”

By Steven Litt, The Plain Dealer

CNBC FED SURVEY: FED EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES TWICE MORE THIS YEAR AND THEN RISK A ‘POLICY MISTAKE

CNBC

Fed expected to hike rates twice more this year and then risk a ‘policy mistake’: CNBC survey

  • Nearly all respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey see the Fed hiking rates a quarter point this week to a new range of 2 to 2¼ percent.
  • In addition, 96 percent believe another quarter-point hike is coming in December.
  • About 60 percent see the Fed eventually raising rates above neutral to slow the economy.

Steve Liesman | @steveliesman

Look out for two more rate hikes this year from the Federal Reserve to go along with economic growth nearing 3 percent and a central bank that eventually raises rates explicitly to slow growth, according to respondents to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.

A full 98 percent of the 46 respondents, who include economists, fund managers and strategists, see the Fed hiking rates a quarter point this week to a new range of 2 to 2¼ percent. And 96 percent believe another quarter-point hike is coming in December.

“Fed funds increases in September and December are as certain as certain can be,” John Donaldson, director of fixed income at Haverford Trust, wrote in his response to the survey. “Their real challenge starts after the first increase in 2019, which will bring the rate to 2.75 percent, or finally back to even to inflation.”

Respondents see the funds rate rising by two more quarter points (50 basis points) in 2019, which would bring it to a range of 2.75 to 3 percent. After that, divisions set in, with about half the group seeing a third hike in 2019.

About 60 percent of the group see the Fed raising rates above neutral to slow the economy. The average that respondents see the funds rate eventually ending this hiking cycle is 3.3 percent.

“This means that the U.S. bond market will reach a decision point sometime in the next year, when market participants will have to decide whether the Fed will go beyond current market pricing,” said Tony Crescenzi, executive vice president at Pimco. “If and when it does, U.S. Treasuries will move higher.”

A fifth of the group say a “fed policy mistake” is one of the biggest threats facing the expansion, second only to trade protectionism.

“We are in jeopardy of watching trade and monetary policy plunge into a head-on collision, with no one wearing seat-belts, and the airbags have been disabled,” wrote Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. “The biggest risk in the market is a policy mistake, and we are working on a two-for-one special.”

Respondents support President Donald Trump‘s handling of the economy by a 61 percent to 30 percent margin, unchanged from the July survey. But 59 percent say his trade policies will reduce growth, and 52 percent say they will lower employment in the U.S.

A slight 53 percent majority also say the president’s negotiating tactics will lead to better trade agreements for the U.S., while 20 percent say they will be worse and 22 percent expect them not to change much.

Overall, the tariff effects on the economy are seen as modest. Among those who see negative effects, the average is just a 0.2 percent decline for GDP in 2019 and a 0.2 percent higher inflation.

But some see more substantial effects.

“The president should be remembered for his cuts in regulations that served the economy so poorly for years but instead will be remembered for his illogical, un-economically justifiable support for trade protection and tariffs. How sad is that?” wrote Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter.

Strong economic growth ahead

But forecasts suggest the president has some room for his trade policies to subtract from growth without doing enormous economic damage. Respondents look for GDP year over year to be up 2.8 percent in 2018, versus 2.2 percent in 2017, and up 3 percent in 2019, defying the general belief in a slowdown next year predicted by many economists.

Inflation is seen ticking up to around 2.5 percent this year and next, while the unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 3.7 percent by 2019.

“Rarely are so many economic gauges of the U.S. economy so strong — including employment, income, retail sales, business spending, manufacturing and small business,” wrote Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the National Retail Federation. “The near-term outlook appears to be steady as she goes.”

Respondents see a low 14 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months.

Stocks are seen growing, but slowly. The average forecast predicts the S&P 500 will rise to 2,956 this year and end 2019 at 3,038. While it would break the 3,000 level, it would represent just a 4 percent gain over the next 15 months.

Treasury yields are seen ending this year at 3.15 percent and 3.45 percent in 2019, suggesting much of the Fed tightening is priced into the bond.

Retail decline in region is ‘a permanent shift’

As more people do their shopping online, retailing in Northeast Ohio is changing. And while most brick-and-mortar stores are not in danger of going the way of the dinosaur, in a region where the population isn’t expanding, every online sale has a cost in the malls, in the storefronts and in jobs lost.

By more than one estimate, including by local economist Jack Kleinhenz, the chief economist for the National Retail Federation, online sales now make up 10% of retail sales. Sales, buoyed by rising prices, continue to grow modestly, though accurate regional sales figures are not available.

“The decline in store traffic is not a trend anymore. It’s a shift, a permanent shift,” said Elad Granot, dean of the Dauch College of Business and Economics at Ashland University. “So brick-and-mortar retailers have to figure out what they can offer that Amazon can’t, and it’s getting to be a shorter and shorter list.”

Granot was referring to online retailer Amazon.com‘s move into the grocery business with its purchase of Whole Foods, and its expanding role in logistics. The logistics push includes a growing fleet of cargo airplanes and its fulfillment centers, such as the ones it is building in North Randall and Euclid, on sites of former shopping malls.

Granot said some retail categories are relatively safe. He said, for example, that shopping for makeup can entail trying out different products with an in-store stylist — what he calls an experience. The categories that should be worried about Amazon, he believes, are the categories that have no experience attached to consumption.

“If I need Band-Aids, I’m not going to wait until the next time I’m at CVS, I’m going to order them on Amazon right now,” Granot said, noting that he recently was on a flight of stairs with a student who was ordering a pair of sneakers online as they walked. “CVS provides me with no experience when I shop for Band-Aids.”

According to the Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services, the retail trade in the seven-county Cleveland metropolitan area lost 8,758 jobs, 5.9% of total jobs in retailing, in the decade between 2006 and 2016. During the same time period, the number of retail establishments dropped 6.5%, a net loss, since new stores keep opening, of 601 establishments.

Much of that loss was in Cuyahoga County as new retail developments sprout up in neighboring counties. Over the decade, the core county lost 5,927 jobs, or 8.6% of its retail jobs, and 464, or 10%, of its retail establishments.

And the decline is continuing, according to preliminary jobs numbers for 2017.

While employment in major Northeast Ohio sectors such as manufacturing, financial services and education and health services held steady or rose, the region continued to lose retail jobs between January 2017 and January 2018, according to the state data.

Regional retail sales are growing, according to Alex Boehnke, manager of public affairs at the Ohio Council of Retail Merchants (OCRM), though regional sales are not well tracked.

The best estimate of the trend in retail sales in Ohio and its metropolitan areas is done by the Economics Center at the University of Cincinnati for OCRM. In November, as the holiday shopping season was beginning, the center estimated that retail sales in the Cleveland metropolitan area for the 2017 holiday season would grow only 3.1%. Sales in the Akron metro were expected to grow only 1.2%. Estimates of national holiday sales growth ranged from 4% to 6%.

“We don’t have the population coming in,” Kleinhenz said. “The pie is not growing.”

CBRE, a national real estate brokerage with a large Cleveland operation, calculates that only two metropolitan areas have more retail square feet per person than Northeast Ohio, where there is 29.9 square feet of retail for every person in the area. In its August 2017 report, “Dead Malls: a boost for retail?,” which is subtitled, “Is retail in Cleveland dying, or is it just overbuilt,” Cleveland-based research analyst Brandon Isner found that only Orlando, with 30.4 square feet per resident (a deceptive figure for a tourist city), and Atlanta, with 30 square feet per resident, top Cleveland.

“It is clear that Cleveland has a supply issue in regard to retail real estate,” Isner wrote. “(W)ithout the population growth that other metro areas have enjoyed, extra retail will weaken what remains.”

In Cuyahoga County, retailers in two mixed-use developments will be opening their doors in the coming months. Opening in the spring, Pinecrest, in Orange Village, has lured several dozen retailers, including Whole Foods, Pottery Barn and Williams Sonoma. In Shaker Heights, the Van Aken District will add about 100,000 square feet of retail space come summer.

Similarly, retail building booms in Avon in Lorain County and in and around the site of the former Geauga Lake amusement park in Geauga County have cost Cuyahoga County retail sales.

“There is no doubt there is a shift going on,” Kleinhenz said. “Are we overstored? In many cases, that is accurate. It’s just that it’s not necessarily that retail is declining broadly.”

Joseph Khouri, a real estate broker with CBRE in Cleveland, agrees with Granot. He, too, believes the retailers who survive will be the ones who sell an experience and activity related retail. He pointed to Toys R Us, which recently announced it was closing all of its stores nationwide after declaring bankruptcy.

“They didn’t differentiate themselves from online sellers,” he said. “People are gravitating toward experiential retail. Specialty food retailers, arts and crafts, home goods products that you have to touch and feel — unique offerings that are hard to mimic online.”

That ability of local retail to be an experience leads Granot to say that he believes local, boutique retailers can also survive.

“Shopping local, especially in Northeast Ohio, is a point of pride,” he said. “There is a lot of room for local retailers to do well, as long as they offer an additional benefit beyond the actual product and price, because it’s going to be increasingly harder to beat Amazon.”

Jay Miller

Crain’s Cleveland

Holiday sales to rise 3.6 percent this winter: NRF

A more confident group of consumers are expected to loosen their purse strings this holiday, and are seen sparking an acceleration in retail sales growth over last year.

The National Retail Federation on Tuesday said it expects retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline and restaurants to rise 3.6 percent in November and December, to $655.8 billion. That would mark an acceleration over last year’s 3 percent increase, and would easily top the 10-year average of 2.5 percent growth.

The trade organization’s forecast, considered the industry benchmark, is based on an economic model that factors in consumer credit, monthly retail sales and personal income.

NRF anticipates non-store sales, which skew toward digital, will increase between 7 percent and 10 percent, to as much as $117 billion.

“We have a lot more people working this year,” Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist, told reporters.

When factoring in other indicators like wage growth and higher home prices, “our general sense of the economy is that we’re in better shape than we were last year,” Kleinhenz said.

Source: NRF

Retailers got off to a rocky start in 2016, as last winter’s unseasonably warm temperatures left their shelves stocked with coats and scarves. Stores were forced to aggressively discount these items to make way for spring goods, cutting into their margins. Retailers have finally gotten their inventory levels in check, boding well for their profitability this season.

Yet even as more Americans are working and receiving slightly higher paychecks, they’ve been reluctant to spend on traditional retail goods — namely apparel. Broad-based discounting has also cut into retailers’ top lines, requiring them to sell more items to record a gain.

And weather once again took a toll on sales in August and September, thanks to a warm back-to-school and early fall selling season. High temperatures dented apparel specialty stores’ revenue by $393 million during those two months as compared with the prior year, according to new research by Planalytics.

More broadly speaking, data from the Commerce Department shows that retail sales in August slipped on a monthly basis for the first time since March.

Despite the slowdown, Planalytics predicts temperatures on the densely populated East Coast will be more in line with typical years this holiday, which should help spur demand for cold-weather categories. And while some holiday purchases may be pushed back because of the election, the trade organization said it does not anticipate political uncertainty to dent sales.

“This year has not been perfect,” NRF President Matthew Shay conceded. “Overall we think this is a realistic number and very reflective of the current environment.”

Like NRF, separate forecasts from Deloitte, AlixPartners, the International Council of Shopping Centers and RetailNext are all calling for growth between 3.2 percent and 4 percent. PwC expects a more robust 10 percent lift in spending; unlike the other predictions, its forecast includes spending on restaurants and travel.

Retail sales excluding automobiles and parts rose 2.8 percent through August, according to the Commerce Department.

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CNBC

Forecast: Holiday Sales to Increase 3.6 Percent

The first forecasts for the upcoming 2016 holiday season have been released, and they predict that retailers will enjoy solid sales during the crucial season which can comprise more than 20 percent of a retailer’s annual business, according to the National Retail Federation, the Washington D.C. retail trade organization.

Retail sales during November and December, excluding auto, gas and restaurant sales, will increase 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion, according to the NRF, which released its forecast on Oct. 4. Deloitte, the auditing, consulting and risk management company, forecast that holiday retail sales will increase 3.6 percent to 4 percent, according to a statement released Sept. 21. Retail sales should exceed $1 trillion during the season, said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist.

“Consumers have ramped up their spending this year on the back of a strong labor market. We also expect slightly higher growth in disposable personal income during the upcoming holiday season compared with last year,” he said.

During a conference call, Jack Kleinhenz, the NRF’s chief economist, also noted that economic indicators support predictions that sales will increase during the holiday despite gloom about the economy. “Certainly there will be some speed bumps that come along,” he said.

But with unemployment low—it is 4.9 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics—and consumer confidence increasing—it is at the highest level since the recession, according to a Sept. 27 statement from The Conference Board—things look good for the U.S. consumer.

“They have more money in their pockets, but they haven’t over-leveraged themselves,” Kleinhenz said.

Kleinhenz also is confident that the economy is in a much stronger position than it was last year when the NRF missed its holiday forecast.

“It would be a different picture if we had higher unemployment. We’ve been adding jobs, we aren’t at a break-out speed, but I don’t see where people are going to fall off of the side of the world and stop spending,” he said.

Last year, the NRF predicted that holiday retail sales would increase 3.7 percent. By the time the season’s last receipts were counted, the NRF announced that 2015 holiday sales had only increased 3 percent. Matthew Shay, the NRF’s president and chief executive officer, blamed the missed forecast on warm weather during the holiday season, inventory issues and retailers offering deep discounts early in the season.

The NRF also forecast sales increases for e-commerce and catalogs during the 2016 holiday season. It is forecast to increase between 7 percent and 10 percent to as much as $117 billion. Deloitte also predicted a robust forecast for holiday e-commerce sales, saying online sales will increase 17 percent to 19 percent, reaching $96 to $98 billion during the 2016 holiday season.

By Andrew Asch | Tuesday, October 4, 2016

ASID IDBI Third Quarter 2015

“Overall economic growth has slowed due to economic crosscurrents during the third quarter, but consumer spending,
along with long awaited housing and construction activity, are providing needed fuel to keep the economy on track.
Consumer and business spending should keep the design industry momentum in place for the near term. The slightly
slower U.S. economy should prove to be temporary and not prove to be a major speed bump for the design industry, and
panelists remain positive about the near term outlook for the industry.”